| HappySqurriel said: I'm still not a very big fan of electoral-vote.com because they assign electoral college votes for states even though the difference between the candidates is (much) smaller than the margin of error on the polls they use, and much smaller than the number of undecided voters. I prefer pollster.com which currently has McCain at 163 while Obama is at 250 with 125 electoral votes undecided. At the moment, I would expect Obama to win if there was an election today ... Since McCain only really needs a 1% to 2% swing in only a handful of states to win this election I think this can still be called a very close race. An interesting thing to watch will be if the $700 Billion bailout effectively calms the market will this benefit McCain or Obama more, and will the $700 Billion bailout itself hurt McCain or Obama more. There are reasons why it could go either way ... |
I think people like electoral-vote.com because it has a bigger map that's easier to understand. I added pollster.com to the OP. It looks nice. I'll have to check it out more closely.
The $700BB hasn't passed yet. I expect it will and then the people in the House races will have to explain why they voted for it. The best the market can do now is stay in a range. It will probably go down and find it's new stable level. I'll just guess around 9500. If the market is below 10k on Nov. 4th I expect Obama to win. If it's above then it might be a real contest. Any economic news coming out at the end of this month is probably going to have effect.
Right now the EC map is looking crazy strong for Obama. It's looking more like Mondale vs. Reagan, McGovern vs. Nixon or Dole vs. Clinton. But all of those races were against popular incumbents. Basically the challengers were just sent out to die, and to help in the Senate and House races. I've never followed a race by the EC map before until it was the last week of the campaign so this is very interesting.
It usually starts to tighten up some during the last three days (Nov. 1-3).
I'm still waiting for the insane attack ads from the 527's. Some Willie Horton or Swiftboat type stuff. It will happen or something has changed in American politics that I missed.
Anyways, I believe Obama needs at least a 10% lead in the polls to have any hope at all of winning. When it comes time to pull the lever I believe that racism will play a part in which candidate is selected. Maybe I'm too cynical or I don't understand how America has changed. I'll be glad to be proved wrong.
