By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - I'm tired of unfounded predictions

I do find it humorous that so many "because I want it to be" predictions happen on a site that focuses on numbers. It's a bit like having a raging debate about religion in the midst of a science convention, though I understand that does happen from time to time.

But yes, they do get old. Especially the predictions that are clearly not based on any evidence, which is particularly irritating on a site that is chock full of evidence. Though the ones that try to claim that the market is changing based on a single week of sales also get on my nerves. You can get away with that kind of isolated incident exaggeration on many sites, but not on one where the entire history of video game sales for the last decade is lovingly catalogued.



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.

Around the Network

i predict this thread is going to fail.



I predict that this request will go absolutely nowhere. As support, we're on a sales site that's got plenty of...platform partisans...who will rarely, if ever, be punished for pulling predictions out of their a**es (and why should they? some folks get paid big money to do the same...).

As further support, everytime someone says something outlandish, a three to ten page thread is created, whereas when someone says something that's clearly based on reality, there's rarely anything to say apart from "I agree!"

Result: GTA will destroy the Wii. Discuss for the week.

MontanaHatchet said:
Having reasons for your predictions means that more often than not, you'll be wrong. Videogames sales numbers are unforgiving. They'll completely ignore all logic of userbase, economy and population, and even past trends. I've made dozens of founded predictions that fell flat on their face, and so have other people (sorry Naznatips, but GTA4 will sell more than you want it to).


Pish-posh and poppycock. Game sales are as predictable as most other endeavors, but because they're based on human behavior there's a lot of variables to control for. That doesn't make them unpredictable, it makes them complex. But if you're willing to plug in the proper data into the correct formula, you'll get the right response.

Of course, to do that you'd also need to have no life, but them's the breaks of trying to play Nostradamus.



Acevil said:
psrock said:
I need proof of these silly predictions you speak... AND don't include Rock_on.

 

John_Lucas (I only heard of him, not actually seen him), Leo-J said the Wii would be dead in June because of MGS4. Honestly I am kinda new but I could find more.

 

 I said that the wii would be dead thanks to MGS4?

I remember saying something about GTA IV, not MGS4..



 

mM

That's the nature of this site.

Just ban people that make predictions or something. That's the only thing you can do about it Fishy.



Around the Network
libellule said:
Just 1 point :

The issue is not about people making predictions.

The issue is about people making a thread about their predictions ...

 

 this.



Go buy Metroid OTHER M!

Wii code: 6775-1034-2238-1634

PSN: birdie93      XBL: luthor93

3DS: 3909-7597-9889

You can add me, I won't stop you!

My website: www.fight4custom.com

Kitami Reika said:
That's the nature of this site.

Just ban people that make predictions or something. That's the only thing you can do about it Fishy.

we should bring back ban bets..... The fact that people can make ridiculous predictions and get away with it without anybody challenging them is laughable.

 

If you want to make a prediction, then you should be willing to back it up with a ban bet.

 



Soriku (Feb 10/08): In 5 years the PS3/360 will be dead.

KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
Original cast: Badonkadonkhr, sc94597 allaboutthegames885, kingofwale, Soriku, ctk495, skeezer, RDBRaptor, Mirson,

Episode 1: OOPSY!
selnor
: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
Letsdance: FFXIII (PS3+360) first week in NA = 286K
According to pre-order rate in week 13 (post id: 2902544)
leo-j said:
Acevil said:
psrock said:
I need proof of these silly predictions you speak... AND don't include Rock_on.

 

John_Lucas (I only heard of him, not actually seen him), Leo-J said the Wii would be dead in June because of MGS4. Honestly I am kinda new but I could find more.

 

 I said that the wii would be dead thanks to MGS4?

I remember saying something about GTA IV, not MGS4..

Oh yes you did. And you were also ridicously wrong with your ''GTAIV will kill the Wii''.

 



Honestly all these prediction really just come from peoples bias. Half the time you can just tell a persons "prediction" just by their avatar let alone their whole sig.



              Can love bloom on the battlefield?                 Proud supporter of this gen!!!

                       

Now that I think about it, I'm not entirely sure I've ever made a prediction on these forums before.

@Noname 2200: I agree! No, really, I do. Your last point is especially why I don't make predictions as I couldn't be bothered, for example, to even check previous sales for an earlier iteration of a game in a series.

After writing this, I'm actually wondering what triggered me to create an account here. Regardless, I'm hooked now.