Most people fond of making all sorts of unfounded predictions can be likened to when someone throws a large enough bucket of crap at a wall: something is going to stick, and that someone will be jumping up and down, clapping his hands and crowing about how that one piece of crap stuck just like he knew it would.
The main problem is that most of the people making the predictions have way too much of an emotional investment in their favorite consoles and/or games to make those predictions anything close to objective and rational.