Isn't Brawl going to be better than Galaxy? I thougt Brawl was nintendo's biggest game of the year. Shouldn't we be compareing Brawl to Halo instead?

P.S. I've been gone awhile, so I don't know all that much.

To give some insight into how much nintendo will hype SMG....

This is a direct quote from the Official Nintendo E3 Press Kit, under their news stories that they are promoting. The specific quote comes from an article entitled "Nintendo Reveals Incomparable Breadth of Upcoming Games"...

Super Mario Galaxy : The latest masterpiece by legendary video game designer Shigeru Miyamoto puts a smile on the face of everyone who plays it. Until now, no game has matched the sheer fun and sense of delightful awe produced by the groundbreaking Super Mario® 64. Using the Wii Remote and Nunchuk™, players navigate iconic hero Super Mario™ through a series of planets, each with its own gravity, chaotic challenges and power-ups. The game bursts through the screen in vivid artistic detail, and a second player can even provide some assistance along the way. It blasts off Nov. 12.

The line that I put in bold there tells me that Nintendo is well aware of the Gem they have based on the reactions from reviewers. I seriously doubt they are going to let a Franchise Cornerstone like Mario go unnoticed when they have feedback so overwhelmingly positive.

Reggie actually made a remark about SMG being the true succesor to SM64.

As far as the predictions go for Halo3 and SMG, I think both will struggle to even reach the 10 mil mark. If you take a look at the Best-selling games of all time, there have only been 6 games released on the past 2 generations of console, namely: GTA:SA, GT3, GTA:VC, SM64, GTA3 and GT. Maybe you could argue that the Playstation brands didn't really have a kind of mascot game, like Halo or Mario, but will this really be enough to sell way more than the previous entries ? I think theSource makes some good points but still overestimating the potential of both games.

I definitely don't see Halo3 selling more than the installed userbase of the 360 right now, which is: 10 mil, I think around 7,5 mil is doable. As some others have already said, the competition in the FPS genre is very heavy, which should keep Halo3 from having long legs, a year past it's release date I don't expect Halo3 to be anywhere near the Weekly Top 50.

With SMG it really depends on it's legs, anyone care to mention another 3D platformer which could truly challenge Mario on it's own console? I think it will sell around 9-9,5 mil. In comparison when SM64 there were hardly any games on the N64 which could compete as a quality game at all, the N64 was probably the console which relied the most on 1st party games, with the Wii things will defintely be different.

I'm a huge Nintendo fan, but truth be told I'm more excited about Halo3 then Mario.

But in the mean time, the N64 was also THE console for 3D platformers. Banjo-Kazooie, Donkey Kong 64 or Rayman 2: The Great Escape were great games too and I believe that sales of Mario 64 would even be higher if these games wouldn't have taken away some of its potential buyers. But as you stated, there are no comparable platformers announced for the Wii, which lets me think that Galaxy will be the platforming reference on the Wii for a long time.

Even though I heard very very good news on Mario I will have to say brawl will sell more then Mario but i don't see it sellnig more then Halo........... Actually now that i think about it, it will once they announce online mode.........

I'm personally more excited about Brawl, yes, but that's not the point. Halo 3 will sell to a large percentage  of the Xbox 360's established user base, as well as become a sales motivator for those who were holding out on buying a 360 until Halo 3's release. Super Mario Galaxy will sell just as well, and will sell more Wii units, in a similar fashion to Halo 3's effect on 360 sales (Assuming the demand for the Wii has diminished at all when the game is released.)

Lifetime?

SMG: 11 million

Halo 3: 8-9 million

I'll own both.

I think this is probably the biggest flaw in your argument. We have no idea if the 360 will be at the $300/400/479 price points when Halo releases and it's almost guaranteed that it will be lower before the end of the year. MS can't sit through three holiday seasons at the same price point; that would be stupidity on a level unrivaled in the history of consoles (okay, maybe a bit of an exaggeration). They are looking at their sales just as we are... The market for a $400 360 Pro is dwindling, if not nearly gone at this point. They need a price reduction to revive sales, not to mention that a price drop is overdue anyway. How many consoles in history have gone 20 months without a single price drop?

Anyway, I see Halo jumping to a huge lead over SMG in 2007 with sales slowly dwindling over time. While I think that the Wii's userbase and SMG's appeal to multiple markets over time will slowly surpass overall H3 sales.

In the end, I expect this:

Halo 3: 10-11m

SMG: 12-13m

I am more excited for brawl, because I was a HUGE melee fan, and i didnt even buy sunshine, i enjoy the mario games as much as the next guy, but I am definatley looking forward to Halo 3 and Brawl more, maybe because I'm just better at them than at mario games. Honestly though, I can see Halo 3 having long legs, look at Halo 2 still cracks the top 50 even after 2 and a half years, almost three now. And these are NEW games we are talking about, nevermind "used".

 Halo will have long legs but I expect the Wii userbase and the attraction of the only Mario game on the system will slowly overpower the H3 numbers.