Gears and Halo 3 appear to be launching on hardware with the same pricepoint, so I believe the comparison is apt. |
I think this is probably the biggest flaw in your argument. We have no idea if the 360 will be at the $300/400/479 price points when Halo releases and it's almost guaranteed that it will be lower before the end of the year. MS can't sit through three holiday seasons at the same price point; that would be stupidity on a level unrivaled in the history of consoles (okay, maybe a bit of an exaggeration). They are looking at their sales just as we are... The market for a $400 360 Pro is dwindling, if not nearly gone at this point. They need a price reduction to revive sales, not to mention that a price drop is overdue anyway. How many consoles in history have gone 20 months without a single price drop?
Anyway, I see Halo jumping to a huge lead over SMG in 2007 with sales slowly dwindling over time. While I think that the Wii's userbase and SMG's appeal to multiple markets over time will slowly surpass overall H3 sales.
In the end, I expect this:
Halo 3: 10-11m
SMG: 12-13m
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