We aren't talking this year alone, we're talking overall. It's written in to the title, Ck.

I actually agree that Halo will sell more, but I think it's a little unfair of you to discard New Super Mario Brothers, but harp on Mario Sunshine. They're both platforming titles in the series, and NSMB is newer. If you're going to simply harp on 3D, I'll point out that Mario 64 sold almost twelve million copies. 

Either include all the Mario platformers, or don't include any. You can't just include the ones that bolster your position, Ck, because that's shoddy argumentation.  

 Good point. How about we ask which will sell better in the American market? Halo wins, obviously :p

In fact, I think Halo could outsell Mario Galaxy if it was only in the American market, and SMG was worldwide. Just a guess, but we'll see. 

How can you even say a Mario game on the DS reflects on sales of the games on the console?

They are totally different affairs. One is a lot smaller and casual centric than the other.

Also, the hand held Mario games are great sellers because they fit in perfectly for hand held gaming, quick short levels and old school gameplay. The console Mario games should not be compared to hand held Mario games.

Do you compare Pokemon Battle to the DS Pokemon and claim it will sell the same? No.

Of course not, ckmlb.

But Super Mario Sunshine was a big flop compared to all other Mario games (and I mean all) and was released for a system which wasn´t selling all that well.

Galaxy, on the other hand, will come out for a system which sells PS2-like and looks far more polished than Super Mario Sunshine.

I´d say 10 million are possible, maybe more.

For Halo: I don´t think it´ll break 10 millions. The 360 is just strong in one market, so it would have to sell 7 million copies in the US alone to make that number possible. I think more of 8 million. But who knows...

I don't at all think that Sunshine reflects the sales ability of this game... I think it's quite possible that this will sell far more than Mario 64 even... we will see, i'm not great with numbers but I am good with comparisons, and this game is going to be huge huge huge!

I am having a really hard time picturing any scenario where SMG does not outsell Halo 3. It is not impossible, but there are a lot of things that need to conspire in order for it to be close.

Looking at the short term of just this year, I think we will see a very close race between the two. But going into post holiday sales and the lull that is the winter months I just do not see how Halo 3 can keep up. The Wii has shown tremendous resilience against the standard sales trends and I feel pretty comfortable in saying Mario is more of a household name then Halo.

I also don't think that you can use Mario Sunshine as anything other than a lower bounds for what the SMG sales will look like. I won't claim to be an expert or even close to it on the matter, but I for one have not seen a single bad press on SMG except for maybe one or two posts about frustrated fans who are really excited to get their hands on it being delayed. The same was not true for the SM: Sunshine release and that was with lackluster GC sales numbers.

Ultimately time will tell us who the victor of this battle in the war will be. However, for the time being I am putting my vote on the plumber.

I thought the overall sales meant overall for this year.

My predictions are not for lifetime sales, but either way Halo still outsells SMG in lifetime sales, but in yearly sales it outsells it by a lot in the US.

agree with ckmlb!!

We should only compare Galaxy with Sunshine and "64".
Definitely, Galaxy will sell more than those two as Wii hardware is nearly equal to lifetime sales of GC (in Japan).

For the sales comparison between Galaxy and Halo 3, I think it will be similar, even in American market.... Maybe Halo 3 will be a little bit more (less than 400k more)

Keep in mind with Japan they have a Gateway effect. Games targeted to the hardcore will do well on a Nintendo system in Japan. Phantom Hourglass is an amazing example as it has sold thought the roof and has a high number of female players. Expect this to be big in Japan.

Both will be big no doubt! But Halo 3 will not have the same impact as it's predecessors... because it has too much competition this time and it doesn't offer something substantially different, why change a winning formula right? Who knows what other games will rival it in it's lifespan. Haze, Unreal Tournament, Killzone 2, hey even Metroid 3 at a certain extend!
The biggest competition has to come from Halo 4! Expect Bungie to listen carefully to the critique the game has already received when releasing the Beta, that the improvements on Halo 4 will make Halo 3 irrelevant! That will not happen to Mario Galaxy! Each Mario game is unique but for some strange reason the Mario games launched in the launch periode have always sold more than the sequels...


With an attach rate of 25% in it's entire lifespan I think 15 million is a reasonable number (Wii selling 60 million wich is a very low estimate). In the best case scenario with Wii selling over 100 million units, that number can easily double!

Let's say Xbox360 will sell between 30 and 40 million, Halo 3 will roughly sell between 10 and 12 million with an attach rate of 33%. Wich is in line with it's predecessors.