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Forums - Sales - SuperChunk's WW Sales prediction through Jan 2016



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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Wii 3.2 19.7 45 65 78 85 88 89.5 90 90
X360 8.1 16.1 24 29 33 35 36.5 37 37 37
PS3 1.4 9.2 21 55 95 122 135 143 148 149

After careful deliberation I can now post what will surely become a legendary prediction and analysis. This has not been something that I came to lightly. It is an honest breakdown of the sales trend given various variables, such as a price drop, future games, and of course eventual nextGen models.

First we can talk about the 360. I have drawn a similar trend to that of the xbox on year over year sales with the assumption that it will have an overall better LTD but will have another one year head start with the nextGen starting in 2011. It will continue to have a lot of quality games to support this 10m+ sales over the Xbox and that will be without those fake rumors of WiiMote ripoffs we have seen on various posts. As you can see from this chart by a year after its successor it will drop off significantly as the legions of fans say "haha" to the 360 and jump to the neXtBox.

Second is the Wii. This is probably the most surprising for you all, yet it makes the most sense. Even with this Nintendo are clearly not losers. The Wii's increadible charge will start to dissipate over the next 18 months as gamers really start to feel the loss over quality "hardcore" games, Superchunk included. Conduit will fail to ignite that spark that so many of us hope for as the othe 3rd parties just keep pushing PS360 which inevitably really helps PS3 greater than the 360. As the big games continue to roll out on other platforms and thier prices continue to reach mass consumer levels during late 2009 the Wii's unique appeal will level off to a Nintendo personal record of 90m. This will be by far better than any previous Nintendo home console, however far shy of what Playstation has been capable.

Lastly, we move on to the ten year plan realized PS3. Last year the PS3 with a modest price reduction, slew of quality games, and a reformatted platform had a massive year over year increase in sales. This happen again about halfway through 2009 when a new slew of great games, notably Final Fantasy, another $100 price drop with another round of hardware changes. Slim model anyone? These sales will stay steady for about 2yrs and that combined with Wii's leveling off period will catapault the PS3 back into a comfortable lead right into the nextGen. With the superior hardware and, by this time, larger library it will enable Sony to realize their 10yr plan putting the PS3's LTD right up their with PS2.

Now, I know many of you will flame me and attempt to belittle my solid arguement, especially RolStoppable, however, just take a step back for a moment and really look at what I have written here. Let the words sink in and you will realize that I am right. Flame suit ON!

 

 



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best thread this hour !



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)

Holy crap. the PS3 will sell 34 million in 09 and 40 million in 2010. Not bad for a four year-old console....

Edit: I have to admit I wasn't 100% sure you were joking until the last line in the 360 analysis. Well done.



Not trying to be a fanboy. Of course, it's hard when you own the best console eve... dang it

Wow, I figured more people would be interested that PS3 wins. Maybe I should have posted this in the Sony forum...



Good arguments but you didn't mention the other hardcore games coming to Wii =X didn't know the hardcore crowd's hopes all rested upon The Conduits shoulders, plus the fact that Zelda, Pikmin, and many of core series for Wii is in the works. Plus I think 200 to 250 would be the range the mainstream would want to see the PS3 reach before most of the sales happen.

Good ideas Superchunk but you're missing a few key points and I think they're very important for sales.



MaxwellGT2000 - "Does the amount of times you beat it count towards how hardcore you are?"

Wii Friend Code - 5882 9717 7391 0918 (PM me if you add me), PSN - MaxwellGT2000, XBL - BlkKniteCecil, MaxwellGT2000

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I never get tired of seeing that red PS3 line skyrocket up to the ceiling...

Anyway, you forgot to mention one of the reasons PS3 will be so successful - due to the elementary Wii users graduating to HD (the PS3).  It has to be the case, for a console to be capable of selling 40 million in one year...



This has to be a joke because 34 million in one year is a joke haha. If DS has been unable to do it what makes you think PS3 can do it haha. So when it doesn't happen in 09 will the graph just be moved back a year like it always is haha.



You've also forgot that there has never been such a change in sales before in gaming history... so not only would it be unlikely it's also hard to say from past gens that such a spike is possible.



MaxwellGT2000 - "Does the amount of times you beat it count towards how hardcore you are?"

Wii Friend Code - 5882 9717 7391 0918 (PM me if you add me), PSN - MaxwellGT2000, XBL - BlkKniteCecil, MaxwellGT2000

Patrick and Spongebob or not...

I sense that this graph will become the Bible for Sony fans everywhere.  They will remake their calendars with this day being the moment when time began.

All hail, Superchunk.  His wisdom is a blue ray of hope for all the down trodden and weary.  We will prevail.



super_etecoon said:

Patrick and Spongebob or not...

I sense that this graph will become the Bible for Sony fans everywhere.  They will remake their calendars with this day being the moment when time began.

All hail, Superchunk.  His wisdom is a blue ray of hope for all the down trodden and weary.  We will prevail.

As long as I get royalties. :)