whoa lol dont jump to conclusions. I never said Fable 2 was going to bomb (wow, MS fans are crazy to jump to conclusions, is it something in the water?) I just said that u assumed that fable 2 is going to sell 2.6 mil. U can't assume ANYTHING. The world can end before it launches (with all the LHC talk heheh) and therefore selling 0 copies. The game could release with a 10 average rating on metacritic, it can also have a 5 average rating on metacritic. It could sell 2.6 mil first week, or it can sell 260k first week. See my point? nothing is guaranteed, therefore u can't ASSUME anything. It's like Starcraft was saying in another thread (the one with ToV going to PS3 thread), u can't assume that sales for PS3 JRPGs will pass 360's sales because it's not certain as it hasn't happened...yet...just like this :-)

I fixed the list, i think Motorstorm is coming out in October also... so with three big exclusives and bunch of other high profile multiplatform games, i think they should concentrate on October... Moreover Resistance 2 is also coming out on the very start of the november... so spillover effect of the marketing compaign can cover it also...

But they should have a massive compaign..

The whole post was speculatory and therefore he can assume whatever he wants. His numbers a pretty fair and he was generous with his PS3 sales. A lot of posts on this site feature assumptions and guesses to determine trends so you don't need to jump on him for his assumption and be childish. Plus I noticed that you didnt say anything about the PS3 sales that he speculated so whats your point?

 Edit: Considering Fable sold 2.6 mil (according to VGC) on the Xbox, with previews for this game being positive as well as a higher install base (? might be wrong on that idk what the xbox's install base was at the time of Fable's release) 2.6 mil at least sounds pretty reasonable. But we've seen weirder things happen.

OT: Marketing in October is something Sony needs to do in NA especially if the 360 price cut is very successful.

Resistance 2?!?!

So your argument is that I shouldn't assume anything because the world could end or it could score horribly? Ok, let's assume the former is a sane argument. Let me quote you:

Bioshock (360) 2:1 Bioshock (PS3) (if not, atleast 1.5:1) which would be like 1 mil LTD. First week sales WW like 120k MAX.

None of these games will hinder the sales of the games and especially review scores (as the media is surely to give Gears 2 atleast a handful of 10s), but it will affect HW sales IMO.

-Will launch in December in Japan, so it will get the holiday boost, and it's launching to a RPG starved community.

-I think that LO's weekly sales will start to dip once IU and ToV get word of mouth. Y buy an old RPG when a new one with alot of hype just released? I do think that LO's weekly sales will increase because of the holiday boost tho.

-The beginning of next year, LO weekly sales will dip alot because of the overshadowing of big games. If I were a 360 owner in the beginning of next year, and I had money to buy 1 or 2 games only, it would be Gears of War 2 and Halo 3.

-As soon as WKS is launched in NA and especially Others (with their bigger installed base than NA), it SHOULD easily breeze to 1 mil.

Well that's funny. Nowhere in those predictions did you include the world ending into your calculations. Also...(gasp)...you didn't figure review scores into the account. My gosh, what if White Knight released with a 5 on Metacritic? I'm sorry sir but all of your predictions FAIL because you didn't cover every conceivable thing that could happen. Holy mother of god, you also didn't take into account that there's a .0001% chance that the world could succumb to World War III and all videogames may get postponed in that time. Better go back and adjust those assumptions. I mean what gives anyone the right to make informed assumptions off of real data on a site built around making sales assumptions in the first place?

Here's where I give off the real kicker though. You quoting me in the first place was a failure because I never gave any prediction on Fable 2 sales. Not once. I didn't give a prediction for White Knight sales either. I followed past trends and asked markers why he thought the future would hold differently based on them. I actually don't think Fable 2 is going to sell 2,600,000, but before I can give a proper prediction, I need to recheck my data on sunspots and how they affect global warming. It's imperative to knowing how much Fable 2 will sell.

I will ignore the lunatic fringe, and go right to the heart of the matter. The original poster is none to bright. The holiday is what moves hardware and software, and October is too far a lead in. November is the month to capture to keep images fresh in minds. Were Sony to do October with their depleted budget the summers campaigns will not help matters. Sony would have an epic failure on their hands.

Sony may dedicate ten to fifteen percent of their fourth quarter advertising to launch week for Little Big Planet, but no more then that. In fact I expect Sony to push as much of their advertising as possible to the week before, and the week of Thanksgiving in the United States. With the Majority of their marketing in the United States. The market they need to catch up in especially since Microsoft will have that new price point front and center.

That would be the more effective advertising. The advertising that would pay real dividends. Were Sony to just let Microsoft have November with no resistance chances are consumers might start to forget the PS3, and they would draw the conclusion that the 360 is the machine they want. After all look at all these new games coming out, and Sony isn't advertising anything. That is exactly what would happen.

 Some good points especially regarding November advertising after Thanksgiving.

Sale wise it might win. But Fable 2 a FAR HIGHER quality game? hah. I would disagree. Level-5 doesn't have "high quality games" written under its logo for nothing. They have no single bad game in their history, critically acclaimed JRPG's, and WKC... ohh WKC... after I saw the trailers it's my most anticipated game this gen, along with FFv13.

But... you are manning the Fable 2 hype machine, no? I gotta give you credit for doing your job well.

Also: JRPG>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>WRPG

I think you miss the point... The games first week sales are very important as this is wot gives the idea of the Lifetime sales of the game and also the momentum to the sales... so a game to be successful must have a very good first week sales (although there are exceptions but just ignoring them as they are not applicable on the vast majority of the games).

The reason is that the buyer is more inclined and can be more easily convinced to buy the game when it is launch then say after 2 months... because that game will then be competing with loads of other games which have released during that time... So when the game is new, a slight marketing push can introduce the game to whole new lot of people.

Secondly if they get the momentum and strong initial sales on these exclusives then the word of mouth will be large also which will help Sony to keep the momentum going into their favor... it will also nullify XBOX price cut and will help Sony to keep XBOX incheck and under pressure..

If however MS gets the momentum going after the price cut and then in late november and in all December i don't see any good exclusive on PS3 then advertising two month old exclusives will hardly make a difference to the audience.. and it will be impossible for Sony to counter MS..

that is my opinion

NOBODY CARES ABOUT DOWNLOADABLE CONTENT! NOBODY!
STOP SAYING THAT GARBAGE!

On topic- yes i agree, sony should make some good comercials and stuff. put a huge bilboard in times square saying BUY THE PS3 AND NOT THE CRASHBOX! lol just kidding.