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Forums - Nintendo - 3 reasons for nintendo to be worried

LBP will be a great game, but from everything I've seen it's not so simple for non video gamers. You can't just stick the controller into a non video gamer's hand and realistically expect them to do very much.

That's why Wii Sports is so great at attracting new customers. Anyone can start playing with almost no instruction, yet even an accomplished video gamer can have some fun too. There is no learning hump which makes allows the Wii to sell itself without the intervention of an 'expert'.

A learning curve is like a brick wall to non video gamers. I'm not saying that's good or bad, but it's a reality. LBP has a learning curve, maybe not a huge one, but it has one.



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Paul_Warren said:

"b.) somebody successfully invades their sub-market. Until then, these doom-n-gloom declarations are about as realistic as the claims made back in 1987"

The plan with Little Big Planet is to do just that. If it lives up to what is supposed to be its potential, then it should be a current gen combination of Super Mario Bros platforming with Excite Bike's level design, yet chewier than both.  And Sony successfully did this type of thing on the PS1 with Spyro the Dragon and Crash Bandicoot stealing the thunder from games like Mario 64.  And there's nothing stopping the PS3 from having its own fitness game, for example, that could take advantage of the PS3's technological capabilities.  All they would have to do is build a controller for it.  It could even have more exercise types than the Wii because the PS3 has all the space made available by a Blu-Ray disc to do so.  Heck, they could design a game that was a complete tutorial in mediatation and yoga leading from beginner difficulty to advanced levels of competency.  Look at the DS it started to become popular because of its Brain Training games, well the PSP went out and got its own brain training games and in recent months more software has been selling for the PSP than the DS, and there have been quite a few weeks where it has beaten both the Wii and DS in consoles sold in Japan this year.

 

 

Crash Bandicoot and Spryo stole thunder from Mario 64? One of the defining games of the 5th Generation?  Were you even alive and gaming back then?  That was hardly the case.  Early Crash Bandicoot games were little more than linear platformers where you followed a generally one-way path through a kind of platformer obstacle course.  Hardly a relation to the grand scale of freedom and exploration seen in Super Mario 64, and neither title truly matched the smooth open-world style of Nintendo's initial N64 killer app.  And unlike Mario 64, both Crash and Spyro franchises have fallen into crappy design and generally become jokes as over the years, both have lost a lot of luster.  They, and other Mario 64 copycat titles (though Crash Bandicoot can hardly be considered such a thing since it was so fundamentally different) like Gex and Bubsy 3-D failed to out-Mario 64, Super Mario 64.  Crash and Spyro didn't steal away Mario 64's thunder.  They were merely copy-cat platformers for a competing system.  The thunder-stealing was done by Banjo-Kazooie and Zelda: OoT. 

Part of why the PSP is selling better in Japan is likely due to both market saturation of the DS and that the PSP had recent redesigns.  The fact that Sony is churning out yet another redesign so soon after the last one indicates that things are not as wonderful and rosy for the PSP as you'd like to believe. 

Nor will the PS3 snatch up any of the casuals with LittleBigPlanet.  No doubt that game will be successful (as Sony's pre-market hype has been consistantly high for it), but it won't make Blue Ocean consumers suddenly decide the PS3 is the way to go over the Wii.  LBP will sell to gamers and that's about it. 

 

"Chewier" than Super Mario Bros platforming?  Ha.  That's a big unlikely wish if ever I heard one.  Did you even play Super Mario Galaxy?  Or for that matter, Super Mario Bros 3, Super Mario World, Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island, or Mario 64?  Hell, Mario Sunshine sucked, but even that added a lot of stuff to the ever-thickening palette of Mario platforming moves and creative platforming perils. 

Super Mario
Racoon Mario
Kuribo's Boot Mario
Frog Mario
Hammer Mario
Tanooki Mario
Caped Mario
Fire Mario
Winged Mario
Galactic Flying Mario (whatever)
Spring Mario
Bee Mario
Boo Mario
Ice Mario
FLUDD water cannon (weapon & cleaner)
FLUDD speed boost
FLUDD hover cannon
Metal Mario
Invisible Mario
Invincible Mario
Giant Mario
Balloon Mario
Mario with Yoshi
Mario with Flying Yoshi
Mario with Fire Breathing Yoshi
Mario with Earthquake Yoshi
Yoshi Car
Yoshi Mole
Yoshi Submarine
Yoshi Copter
Bunny Mario
Koopa Shell Mario

Mario has
Ran
Jumped
Punched
Kicked
Dove
Triple-jumped
Wall-jumped
Floated
Flown
Soared
Swam
Fallen
Grown
Shrank
Slid
Raced
Balanced on a sphere
Balanced on a wire
Swung on vines
Rode a ray
Carried items
Carried characters
Leapt backwards
Butt-pounded the ground
Collected Coins
Collected Penguins
Rescued lost characters
Solved puzzles
Traversed space
Conquered Dreams
Faced changing gravity
Driven a submarine
Flown a plane (Super Mario Land original installment on classic Game Boy)
And routinely rescued a Princess

I'm sure Little Big Planet will be one helluva platformer (especially compared to all the other platformers on the PS3, of which there are none), but "chewier" or more robust than a Mario game?  Or than Mario platformers in general? 



 



"(especially compared to all the other platformers on the PS3, of which there are none)"

Ratchet and Clank is a platformer.



My most anticipated games:  Whatever Hideo Kojima is going to do next, Final Fantasy XIII, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, Gran Turismo 5, Alan Wake, Wii Sports Resort.  Cave Story Wiiware.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqqLMgbtrB8

1. Banjo has been gone for such a while and its not even a platformer really anymore, and who online cares about Viva Pinata? I have heard no one rave online about either the first or second save Xplay but they are idiots, till they give me something (hint I can be bought off). Despite a price drop most people want a Wii know the difference in games and are we forgeting the experience is different, moslt it is desperate people, some actually older like 50's, getting up early every Sunday for a Wii therefore price doesn't matter for this console, see hd verse Wii. Yes will help some on the fence between both but those dedicsted to get a Wii will continue waiting they know what they want and they will wait.

2.Shortages are just driving up the demand which is crazier than the PS2, see chartz for comparison, and Ninty doesnt make every part shortages mean more stockpiling for the fall and winter holiday period which is good esspecially if you are increasing demand by shortages.

3. Losing hardcore if you are hardcore you love all games including Casuals, and most likely you can buy every console and did so that doesnt matter, hardcore like us are online and look up our own info and E3 is the only time main media talk about video games and Ninty is are a crucial juncture trying to make games mainstream so they have to have "casual" games out there.

Sorry if this has been posted allready and for my spelling i didnt feel like reading through all the responses.



"Like you know"

Paul_Warren said:

Rolstoppable it has to be that way. Maybe they're smart enough to fill in the blanks and doing so should be right up their ally as Wii fans love casual games.

 

 

Here is where you essentially indicated that the Wii is pretty much just for casuals.

 

And no, I don't own Wii Fit, or for that matter, Mario Kart Wii.  Nor will I buy Wii Music, Captain Rainbow, anything Pokemon, Wario Land, or a bunch of other Nintendo titles.  I'll likely get Wii Sports Resort for the Motion Plus and for the mini-game stuff to play with my son.  I've always liked Nintendo, but have always been the guy that populated his systems with 3rd party games.  I was one of the only Nintendo fans not making things worse for Nintendo by only buying up 1st party stuff.  The vast majority of my gaming collection is non-Nintendo stuff with mostly Nintendo systems. 

I generally prefer to play classic games on their respective systems.  However, many of these are expensive and/or hard to find now, making the VC a very nice alternative.  I've never liked illegal emulators.  Sonic the Hedgehog should be played with a Genesis controller, not a bloody keyboard.  Besides, the emulations on the Wii are of substantial quality on-par with the originals--not buggy like one is apt to find in illegal PC emulators.  The only ones I'm getting now are games that are difficult to find, rare imports, or likewise anomalies (like Sin & Punishment).  None of my VC games are titles I previously owned.  Mario Kart 64, and Donkey Kong Country 2 are the only ones I had previously played.  When talking TurboGrafx or Neo-Geo, the Wii VC is typically a smart choice since the games on there cost quite a bit cheaper than on the secondary collector market.  And no, I'm not going to mod or otherwise tamper with my older video game hardware just to play a couple import titles.



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damn...there are some true HD fanboys here ^^''

uh....well

there's no way the 360 or PS3 will EVER beat the Wii

the would need such a RADICAL change..that all the people supporting them would fall off..



Nintendo and the 360 are two different markets by in large. Now there are those that blur the edges and stradle the line between the two but those people are few and far between. In other words Nintendo really isn't taking too many customers from the 360 and visa versa. As far as a shortage goes, Nintendo has cranked out close to 35 million of those little white doodads in under 2 years. Thats alot a doodads. To be fair, I have never seen one behind the counter at ANY Walmart. So maybe there is something to the shortage but either way it hasn't hurt Nintendo. Crap E3?! I was looking through my sons Nintendo Power the other day and was wondering how the hell I was going to be able to narrow down all the great games that are coming out. Wii is just hitting its stride. Now that the 360 has dropped there is a possibility that I will brave the red ring of death but I probably won't due to the fact that I have a kick ass PC and can play all those games anyway. It would be nice to have them both.



I say the shortages might bump up the 360 sales. Hell if you cant find a Wii might as well buy a $200 360 instead. but its not gonna really hurt Nintendo one bit so they shouldnt really "worry"



Paul_Warren said:

"Have you been right on anything in this field since the Wii launched?"

Most recently, I was right when on the very same night that GTA IV received its 10 from IGN when I said over there that Metal Gear Solid 4 was also going to receive a 10 from IGN. I was also right when I said that an 8.7 from IGN for Ninja Gaiden II indicated that the game was going to sell disappointingly, and that if MGS 4 did come out and receive a 10 review score as I predicted that it would, then the PS3 would beat the 360 for the most units sold during the summer '08 months. I also said this would continue until a game like Too Human came out with good review scores and that if Too Human or Tales of Vesperia either one received poor review scores then PS3 domination of the 360 had the potential to continue in America at least until Gears of War 2 is released. Right now, I am predicting disappointing review scores for Fable 2, so unless Halo Wars turns out to be the best rts ever released on console then I still believe I could be right in that prediction.  Of course the new 360 Arcade price will also generate improved sales (sp?) for the console.

Now I am predicting that if Little Big Planet and Resistance 2 both do well critically 9+ review scores for each and that if a game like Mirror's Edge also follows suit, the PS3 could very well be the console of Christmas '08 as I don't think that either Animal Crossing or Wii Music will do so well. Wii Music should receive less sales than Rock Band 2 and the next Guitar Hero to only be the third highest selling music game of the holiday season and in my opinion the jury is still out on Animal Crossing. Whichever of these three games Animal Crossing, Little Big Planet, or Banjo Kazooie  Nuts and Bolts gets the highest review score this Christmas season is going to greatly benefit the console that it is on.

 

The Wii will easily outsell the PS3 this Christmas.  I'll bet whatever you want.

 

Paul_Warren said:

"So we have to wait until Christmas 2010 to congradulate you for your <50M by March 2009 prediction?"

No those are two separate predicitions. I predict that the Wii will not reach 50,000,000 consoles sold by March 1 2009 as someone said was Nintendo's own sales predicition. It has been out almost 2 years and has just passed the 31 million mark. With no Zeldas or Marios coming out between now and March 1, 2009, I really don't see how the Wii is going to move 19 million more units in the next seven months and the Wii has been trending slightly down in recent weeks (eg. two weeks ago it beat the PS3's Others sales by 150% however last week that was down to just 70% more Wii's sold in Others).

And I predict that with much better games coming to the PS3 in the future that really demonstrate what the machine is capable of and a lower price going in 2009 (with at least one of the PS3 models being at the $299.99 price point) that the PS3 will pass the Wii by Christmas 2010. And if the PS3 hasn't passed the Wii in total sales by that point it will be selling worldwide comparably to the Wii much as the PSP does to the DS in Japan.

Now, I am not factoring price cuts into effect for the Wii into these predictions. One reason that the NES was able to stay ahead of its competition as someone pointed out but failed to mention was that the NES had several price cuts during its time. I believe there was a time in 1988 when you could walk into Kaybe Toys for example and pick up an NES for $50.00. I would buy a $150.00 Wii just to catch up with Zelda and Mario, but I have no reason to buy it at $250.00.  Also the NES had a lockdown on what system developers at the time could place their games on and that also worked greatly in the NES' favor. However with key developers and series appearing and continuing to appear on both the PS3 and 360 in this gen, Nintendo simply can't do things like that.

 

The PS3 will not pass the Wii by Christmas 2010.  The only way that the PS3 has a chance to outsell the Wii at all this generation is if the Wii is discontinued early, and the PS3 is not replaced for a very long time.

The PS3 will likely catch the 360 somewhere around Christmas 2009, but there is absolutely no evidence that it will ever catch the Wii.  In case you haven't noticed, the Wii is outselling the HD consoles combined.  I see no reason for that trend to change.

You keep bringing up games, but the games don't seem to have that big of an effect on the sales of the Wii.  They can't when it is already so difficult for Nintendo to meet demand as it is on a regular week.  More of the same hardcore games on the PS3 will not make it sell to the Blue Ocean either.

The PS3 has some room for improvement, but no matter what game comes out for it, the effects are always short lived.  Very few games have a lasting impact.  The PS3 will not live up to the success of the PS2.  It's just not gonna happen.  To this point the Wii is outpacing the PS2.  I don't see either of these trends turning around.



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Sky Render said:
I don't think you quite understand WHAT the Wii's sub-market is. LBP is about as much threat to the Wii as the Dizzy series was to the NES. LBP is the embodiment of the hardcore gamer fantasy of having full control over the game's design and interface, to the point that they're making their own game. But that's not what Average Joe wants. Average Joe (who outnumbers the hardcore about a million to one) prefers to just play the game, not make it.

 

you are fighting a bad statement with worse one.

all because the fact little big planet doesn't require you to do games to actually enjoy it, you have2 choices.

-play the 50+ game built in over and over

-download good AND most free DLC.

 

seriously the only thing holding down LBP potention its the high price of the console when inflation its high.