3 reasons for nintendo to be worried

[theRepublic]

Paul_Warren said:

"Have you been right on anything in this field since the Wii launched?"

Most recently, I was right when on the very same night that GTA IV received its 10 from IGN when I said over there that Metal Gear Solid 4 was also going to receive a 10 from IGN. I was also right when I said that an 8.7 from IGN for Ninja Gaiden II indicated that the game was going to sell disappointingly, and that if MGS 4 did come out and receive a 10 review score as I predicted that it would, then the PS3 would beat the 360 for the most units sold during the summer '08 months. I also said this would continue until a game like Too Human came out with good review scores and that if Too Human or Tales of Vesperia either one received poor review scores then PS3 domination of the 360 had the potential to continue in America at least until Gears of War 2 is released. Right now, I am predicting disappointing review scores for Fable 2, so unless Halo Wars turns out to be the best rts ever released on console then I still believe I could be right in that prediction.  Of course the new 360 Arcade price will also generate improved sales (sp?) for the console.

Now I am predicting that if Little Big Planet and Resistance 2 both do well critically 9+ review scores for each and that if a game like Mirror's Edge also follows suit, the PS3 could very well be the console of Christmas '08 as I don't think that either Animal Crossing or Wii Music will do so well. Wii Music should receive less sales than Rock Band 2 and the next Guitar Hero to only be the third highest selling music game of the holiday season and in my opinion the jury is still out on Animal Crossing. Whichever of these three games Animal Crossing, Little Big Planet, or Banjo Kazooie  Nuts and Bolts gets the highest review score this Christmas season is going to greatly benefit the console that it is on.

 

The Wii will easily outsell the PS3 this Christmas.  I'll bet whatever you want.

 

Paul_Warren said:

"So we have to wait until Christmas 2010 to congradulate you for your <50M by March 2009 prediction?"

No those are two separate predicitions. I predict that the Wii will not reach 50,000,000 consoles sold by March 1 2009 as someone said was Nintendo's own sales predicition. It has been out almost 2 years and has just passed the 31 million mark. With no Zeldas or Marios coming out between now and March 1, 2009, I really don't see how the Wii is going to move 19 million more units in the next seven months and the Wii has been trending slightly down in recent weeks (eg. two weeks ago it beat the PS3's Others sales by 150% however last week that was down to just 70% more Wii's sold in Others).

And I predict that with much better games coming to the PS3 in the future that really demonstrate what the machine is capable of and a lower price going in 2009 (with at least one of the PS3 models being at the $299.99 price point) that the PS3 will pass the Wii by Christmas 2010. And if the PS3 hasn't passed the Wii in total sales by that point it will be selling worldwide comparably to the Wii much as the PSP does to the DS in Japan.

Now, I am not factoring price cuts into effect for the Wii into these predictions. One reason that the NES was able to stay ahead of its competition as someone pointed out but failed to mention was that the NES had several price cuts during its time. I believe there was a time in 1988 when you could walk into Kaybe Toys for example and pick up an NES for $50.00. I would buy a $150.00 Wii just to catch up with Zelda and Mario, but I have no reason to buy it at $250.00.  Also the NES had a lockdown on what system developers at the time could place their games on and that also worked greatly in the NES' favor. However with key developers and series appearing and continuing to appear on both the PS3 and 360 in this gen, Nintendo simply can't do things like that.

 

The PS3 will not pass the Wii by Christmas 2010.  The only way that the PS3 has a chance to outsell the Wii at all this generation is if the Wii is discontinued early, and the PS3 is not replaced for a very long time.

The PS3 will likely catch the 360 somewhere around Christmas 2009, but there is absolutely no evidence that it will ever catch the Wii.  In case you haven't noticed, the Wii is outselling the HD consoles combined.  I see no reason for that trend to change.

You keep bringing up games, but the games don't seem to have that big of an effect on the sales of the Wii.  They can't when it is already so difficult for Nintendo to meet demand as it is on a regular week.  More of the same hardcore games on the PS3 will not make it sell to the Blue Ocean either.

The PS3 has some room for improvement, but no matter what game comes out for it, the effects are always short lived.  Very few games have a lasting impact.  The PS3 will not live up to the success of the PS2.  It's just not gonna happen.  To this point the Wii is outpacing the PS2.  I don't see either of these trends turning around.