Paul_Warren said:
"Have you been right on anything in this field since the Wii launched?"
Most recently, I was right when on the very same night that GTA IV received its 10 from IGN when I said over there that Metal Gear Solid 4 was also going to receive a 10 from IGN. I was also right when I said that an 8.7 from IGN for Ninja Gaiden II indicated that the game was going to sell disappointingly, and that if MGS 4 did come out and receive a 10 review score as I predicted that it would, then the PS3 would beat the 360 for the most units sold during the summer '08 months. I also said this would continue until a game like Too Human came out with good review scores and that if Too Human or Tales of Vesperia either one received poor review scores then PS3 domination of the 360 had the potential to continue in America at least until Gears of War 2 is released. Right now, I am predicting disappointing review scores for Fable 2, so unless Halo Wars turns out to be the best rts ever released on console then I still believe I could be right in that prediction. Of course the new 360 Arcade price will also generate improved sales (sp?) for the console.
Now I am predicting that if Little Big Planet and Resistance 2 both do well critically 9+ review scores for each and that if a game like Mirror's Edge also follows suit, the PS3 could very well be the console of Christmas '08 as I don't think that either Animal Crossing or Wii Music will do so well. Wii Music should receive less sales than Rock Band 2 and the next Guitar Hero to only be the third highest selling music game of the holiday season and in my opinion the jury is still out on Animal Crossing. Whichever of these three games Animal Crossing, Little Big Planet, or Banjo Kazooie Nuts and Bolts gets the highest review score this Christmas season is going to great;y benefit the console that it is on.
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Review scores hardly equate to sales success, see: Eternal Darkness, Carnival Games, or Lair. Eternal Darkness is still one of the highest rated GC games and one of the most critically praised during the last generation, yet it's sales sucked. Carnival Games and Lair both received lackluster, poor, or overly negative reviews and that didn't stop Carnival Games from breaking the million mark or Lair from still, somehow, finding it's way into the collections of over 300,000 gamers.
Animal Crossing will be a big seller for the Wii. AC: Wild World was a very popular DS title. Wii Music, I can give you in that it's got a lot of music-game themed competition that will no doubt drown out the little title. Guitar Hero and Rock Band have reputations and huge followings, and unlike Wii Music, require some skill to be played. That doesn't even factor in the several other music and rhythm titles on the horizon for all systems. Samba De Amigo will likely slaughter Wii Music unless Wii Music comes packed with another controller or something like Wii Play did.
Anyone could have predicted GTAIV and MGS4 would garner a lot of praise and 10/10 ratings. For one thing, it's become more and more obvious that the review system is broken, and for another, both games had a couple years of hype and lead-in backing them, as well as some of the most competent game developers and studios. That's like predicting that the next Zelda game will "kick ass and be way popular." No shit, Sherlock.
The price cut of the Xbox360 will see the most sales in the Pro edition. The Arcade has never been the popular version of Xbox360 hardware since about the only people buying it are the ones foolishly thinking they won't need a harddrive soon after first using it--or the ones duped by crafty (or crooked?) salesmen not mentioning the fact that the only way to actually get some real enjoyment out of the X360 is to buy a harddrive for it later, which costs so much more that they might as well just get the Pro. The Arcade won't cut into anyone's sales, least of all the Wii. The new low-cost Xbox360 Pro and Elites, however, will likely cut into the PS3's sales (especially in North America, but hardly at all in Japan) with little problem.
Also, the Wii has quite a few higher-profile titles coming out later this year, and a plethora spread out over 2009. A fact that you've routinely overlooked during your time with this thread. Hardcore titles, no less--for all the hardcore gamers who either already own a Wii, or are looking for a bit more reason to get it. Halfway through 2009, the Wii will start looking awfully attractive to a lot more hardcore gamers. You keep saying that the Wii is all casual games and casual gamers (which is clearly trolling as no one can actually be that ignorant), and that there are no games coming out for it. With 2009 looking to be a pretty strong year for the Wii, I find it hard to believe your theorizing that it'll be nearly totally dead by 2010. Sure, bubbles burst--everyone knows that. But the Wii's bubble is still in it's growing phase. It spent the first two years appealling strongly to the Blue Ocean market, and next year, it'll start appealling much more to the hardcore gamer market, eventually to be split and appealling to both the way the DS does. With news coming out that Nintendo is gearing it (and the DS) up for a release in India and continued consideration of the Chinese market, it will only continue to grow.
I know my Wii is populated by 12 regular games, 15 Virtual Console games, and a Wii Ware title. The only ones out of all of that I can honestly say are casually-minded are Wii Sports and Wii Play, and those were bought because the former came with the Wii and the latter gave me some quick-play options for gaming with my son while delivering up a Wiimote for "free." The only thing right now that is keeping the Wii from being truly gamer-friendly is the lack of a storage medium. Simply put, you aren't much of a gamer if you aren't the least bit interested in the massive offering of classic titles available in the Virtual Console.
