3 reasons for nintendo to be worried

[Paul_Warren]

"So we have to wait until Christmas 2010 to congradulate you for your <50M by March 2009 prediction?"

No those are two separate predicitions. I predict that the Wii will not reach 50,000,000 consoles sold by March 1 2009 as someone said was Nintendo's own sales predicition. It has been out almost 2 years and has just passed the 31 million mark. With no Zeldas or Marios coming out between now and March 1, 2009, I really don't see how the Wii is going to move 19 million more units in the next seven months and the Wii has been trending slightly down in recent weeks (eg. two weeks ago it beat the PS3's Others sales by 150% however last week that was down to just 70% more Wii's sold in Others).

And I predict that with much better games coming to the PS3 in the future that really demonstrate what the machine is capable of and a lower price going in 2009 (with at least one of the PS3 models being at the $299.99 price point) that the PS3 will pass the Wii by Christmas 2010. And if the PS3 hasn't passed the Wii in total sales by that point it will be selling worldwide comparably to the Wii much as the PSP does to the DS in Japan.

Now, I am not factoring price cuts into effect for the Wii into these predictions. One reason that the NES was able to stay ahead of its competition as someone pointed out but failed to mention was that the NES had several price cuts during its time. I believe there was a time in 1988 when you could walk into Kaybe Toys for example and pick up an NES for $50.00. I would buy a $150.00 Wii just to catch up with Zelda and Mario, but I have no reason to buy it at $250.00.  Also the NES had a lockdown on what system developers at the time could place their games on and that also worked greatly in the NES' favor. However with key developers and series appearing and continuing to appear on both the PS3 and 360 in this gen, Nintendo simply can't do things like that.