GT5
FF13
FFIV
DQIX
Those are my best bets....
4 ≈ One
No, I don't think the DS and Wii have made the Japanese go "casual." The issue is that the development time of games nowadays takes so much longer than before, that it's taking Square Enix forever to release their big hits. That's all these lists are about, really - when the next major Square Enix game hits. DQIX is the only game with a shot at taking down FFVIII - if not, at the very least it should do 2 million, assuming the game is positively hyped there. Dragon Quest is HUGE in Japan, as is the DS - the numbers it pulls off will be interesting. FFXIII will definitely crack the 1 million opening, however I don't see it pulling off FFXII's numbers with PS3's small userbase there.
As for Wii games, MH3 has a decent shot at making the list. If KH3 is put on the Wii, it should have a chance at a million as well. Other than that, I'm not sure there's much out there that can dent the list. Really, it all depends on how long it takes Square Enix to come out with sequels to DQ/FF.
Considering only 3 games have ever made it over 2 million, and the last of those was 4 years ago, i dont think FF8 can be beaten

c0rd - And why can't the titles dent the top of the list? That's what I want to know. It's not like the userbases of the Wii or DS are any smaller than the PS1 or PS2 were at any given point.
I agree the uber-heavy hitters haven't debuted yet - Not having a DQ or FF this generation has hurt the list. However, it seems that many are saying DQIX may reach 2m, but not beat FFVIII - Why? It's not like the 22 million+ userbase of the DS is too small to support 1/10th being able to buy a hyped game week-1.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
FF XIII wont be even near FFVIII, times are different, and quality of FF is somewhat gone. DQ has a chance, of coming close i do agree but i dont see it beating that incredible result, Japan is different now.
@Crazzyman, it does not matter how the Game looks, it helps but trust me RPG fans wont buy it (in numbers like FFVIII)if it only looks amazing (it does)
@Stellabelg - well i think it's due Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World not being the main one in the series (it's not even called ToS II), and the focus shifted towards Vesperia(correct me if im wrong), (the next one big Tales titles is coming to the wii). But it will easily sell as much as the previous version which was 320k in Japan.
And looking at the European list, Wii fit could have sold more if there was any in shops left.
Proof that FF8 is superior to 7. Got more sales because it is a better game. Nothing else can be said.
Hey your list is not 100%, i know you said that, but you may be surprised, but add this into the Japaneses list:
Yu-Gi-Oh: Duel Monsters IV: 1,164,568
Oh and
Yu-Gi-Oh: Duel Monsters: 718,359
Yes, those japanese really love their yu-gi-ohs lol. Don't blame them, because i do too!
Lets not forget horse racing too ok
Derby Stallion: 1,036,748
Who cares about first week sales? I prefer LTD sales of games....
Top 20 according to vg chartz, with DQ7 and FF7 fighting it out between Nintendo games, DQ7 wining slightly, as opposed to FF8 and DQ8 where Final fantasy took the crown by a few thousand, the only other non nintendo game there is DQ3 for NES.
| Name | Console | Publisher | Japan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Pokemon Red / Green / Blue | Nintendo | 10.24 | |||
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Pokemon Gold / Silver | Nintendo | 7.22 | |||
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Super Mario Bros | Nintendo | 6.81 | |||
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Pokemon Diamond / Pearl | Nintendo | 5.79 | |||
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New Super Mario Bros | Nintendo | 5.45 | |||
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Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire | Nintendo | 5.40 | |||
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More Brain Training | Nintendo | 5.10 | |||
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Animal Crossing: Wild World | Nintendo | 4.90 | |||
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Tetris | Nintendo | 4.24 | |||
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Super Mario Land | Nintendo | 4.19 | |||
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Dragon Quest VII | Enix | 4.12 | |||
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Brain Training | Nintendo | 3.95 | |||
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Final Fantasy VII | Sony Computer Entertainment | 3.93 | |||
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Super Mario Bros 3 | Nintendo | 3.84 | |||
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Super Mario Kart | Nintendo | 3.82 | |||
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Dragon Quest III | Enix | 3.77 | |||
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Final Fantasy VIII | Square EA | 3.64 | |||
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Dragon Quest VIII | Enix | 3.62 | |||
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Super Mario World | Nintendo | 3.55 | |||
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Mario Kart DS | Nintendo | 3.34 |