No, I don't think the DS and Wii have made the Japanese go "casual." The issue is that the development time of games nowadays takes so much longer than before, that it's taking Square Enix forever to release their big hits. That's all these lists are about, really - when the next major Square Enix game hits. DQIX is the only game with a shot at taking down FFVIII - if not, at the very least it should do 2 million, assuming the game is positively hyped there. Dragon Quest is HUGE in Japan, as is the DS - the numbers it pulls off will be interesting. FFXIII will definitely crack the 1 million opening, however I don't see it pulling off FFXII's numbers with PS3's small userbase there.
As for Wii games, MH3 has a decent shot at making the list. If KH3 is put on the Wii, it should have a chance at a million as well. Other than that, I'm not sure there's much out there that can dent the list. Really, it all depends on how long it takes Square Enix to come out with sequels to DQ/FF.
