I was looking at the numbers, and didn't realize how much different the Japanese landscape has changed in the past 10-odd years.

What I am talking about are debuts - Fantastic, insane numbers of games being sold in it's debut week. I didn't realize (although I thought it was up there), that Final Fantasy VIII holds the record for best debut.

Here's the top 20 list since the PS1-era from Famitsu, and the launch dates of the respective games:

If you'll notice with the list, it's totally littered with titles from the Playstation 1 and 2, with a sprinkling here and there of portable titles (mainly pokemon), and a measly 1 Wii game.

So the question is: Will we ever see a game in the future that will challenge the top tier titles, with 2m+ sales in their first week? Even now, uber-seller Pokemon D/P (which had a very decent userbase when it launched) sold well below most Final Fantasies. Likewise, Dragon Quest V on DS sold well below Dragon Quest V on PS2 (both remakes).

To me, this is similar to the movie industry in the United States: No movie has ever really come close to Titanic yet (although TDK is getting there)...However that comparison has to do with LTD runs vs. first week sales. Has Japan gone casual enough with the DS and Wii, that consumers will not go out and purchase a game week-1 en-mass? Only 2 console games in this generation have passed 500,000 units first week (both Wii games).

What games could potentially near those insane numbers in the next year or two? The only 2 I can think of would be Dragon Quest IX (on DS), and Final Fantasy XIII. However, neither system has shown to have the power to do insane numbers week one (the DS due to casual users, and the PS3 due to smaller userbase). Are there any potential Wii blockbusters that could see incredible sales soon?

Also, this isn't a discussion AT ALL about LTD numbers. I know how much LTD matters, but it's fun to see something sell over 1,000,000 copies in 1 week, isn't it?

And for those requesting it. NA Top 20:

And European Top 10 (mind you, not enough data for a solid Top 10, as many games are missing data)

To note on both lists: VGC doesn't compile top 10s, so I just checked games I *thought* would be in the top 20 and 10 (based off LTD sales for given 'big' games).

Very interesting for the US and Europe, because both are more diversified in top titles. European data is interesting, because there isn't a lot of data, and even then, the list indicates how casual Europe is. Even though top titles have some major selling power (such as Grand Theft Auto and Gran Turismo), the sales numbers drop pretty quickly. Battlefield: Bad Company on X360 (nowhere in the top 20) sold as much as #10 SSBB did in Europe..Yet #1 GTA:SA sold more than half of Halo 3.

Maybe DQ IX has a chance but that's all I can think of.

Do you think it can sell 1m more copies, first week, than Pokemon D/P did?

I don't think it'll ever happen again.

I think the new bar is 1 million week one. 2+ million won't ever happen again.

DQIX does have a shot.Or maybe that new Pokemon coming out for DS.

I think that if a main FF or DQ releases on Wii it will also have a shot.

Possibly.  I mean it's always hard for me to predict hype in another country becuase I don't live in it but I'd say DQ IX on DS has a lot behind it. I mean I'm cautious to say it'll happen but if there is anything that has a chance I'd say it's DQ IX on DS.

Other than DQ IX only other things I could think of are FF13 on PS3 and Monster Hunter 3 on Wii. But PS3 would need a major install base increase to somewhere way over 5 million. While Wii would also need something similar. It's just highly unlikely for those.

FFXIII may reach 800k

Its dominated by Final fantasy games and Dragon quest games so if it happens it must be one of those.

Even then, DMeisterJ, how many games have passed the 1m lately?

It's strange, but the last 1m seller was Pokemon D/P, and FFXII a few months before that. It's been a (virtually) 2 years since a Japanese game has debuted over the million mark. That's a long time, I think.

And it seems that the only games that have a snowball's chance are Square Enix titles. No IP has stepped upto the plate as of late (aside from Pokemon) to get near the million mark...

Come to think of it: only 2 non-RPGs have even hit the 1m opening mark. Both Resident Evil titles. Everything else is stuck between DQ, FF and Pokemon.