IGN seems to think that 50 million units of software will be sold on consoles in the second half of 2007.  Of those 50 million units, Halo 3 is supposed to account for 6 million by the end of 2007.

That leaves GTA IV and Madden to account for 9 million units.. in the second half of 2007.

Here is my take on this -

Madden will do 5-6 million units in 2007.  PS2 and 360 sales will be over 2 million, Wii and PS3 will account for the rest.  Overall, I'm alright with their prediction as Madden as one of the biggest three selling games on the year (at least across all platforms).

However, Xbox 360 has yet to hit 6 million units of hardware in the USA market by NPD Data (which is what this is based off of).  Despite the hype, not every 360 owner will buy Halo 3.  Halo 2 also sold a ton because Xbox had a larger userbase and was cheaper than 360 is right now.  Given that Xbox 360 will likely cost at least $250 (for the Core Model) for the rest of the year, and that sales will top out at around 7.5-10.0 million in the USA by the end of 2007, I have serious doubts Halo 3 will sell 6 million units in 2007 in the USA.  To me, 4-4.5 million units it tops, and given a userbase under 10 million, that is pretty amazing.

Now, as to GTA - PS3 has yet to cross 2.0 million units in the USA.  Even with sales twice as strong from the price drop, PS3 may not reach 2.0 million in the USA until late August or September.  I expect PS3 sales to be about 2.8 to 4.0 million by the end of 2007 - meaning that even with a 75% attach ratio, the game would only do about 2-3 million units on PS3.  Given the $500/$600 barrier, and the userbase, and an attach ratio of 30-35% seems about the limit, especially since gamers who want a new console just for GTA can opt for a 360.  I expect sales of GTA IV on PS3 in 2007 (in the USA) to be under 1.3 million.  With the Xbox 360 userbase at least double, and the hardware cheaper, I would expect sales of GTA to be almost double for Xbox 360 (although not quite double because it will be competing against Halo 3).  Overall, I expect GTA to sell around 2.5 to 3.5 million units.

Expecting the three titles to do 15 million units on PS3 and Xbox 360 alone seems impossible in 2007.  Sales, if including PS2 for Madden, and getting boosts from the pricedrops may be 14 million for the 3 games.  But without the PS2 Madden, and using the middling grounds of each range, the number is more like 10-12 million..

Here is the article..http://wii.ign.com/articles/802/802462p1.html

Let me know what you think

Madden will sell the most (its on *every* platform - including the PS2? - after all) - maybe 6-7m units.

I think GTA will be next, leveraging off sales from both platforms (2m PS3, 4m 360). This includes sales from Europe.

Halo3 will be last. I think it will sell 4-5m WW by the end of the year. Should do a solid 2-2.5m on opening day, maybe more.

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So I think 15m from all three titles is possible. Its the breakdown in the article I doubt.

It's entirely possible....

Gears of War had 2.0m (rough) sales in the US by EOY 2006 in about 7 weeks. H3 has 14 weeks to garner sales, and actual console sales should dramatically increase over those 4 months with strong adoption rates of h3 for the whole year, as opposed to weak console sales in November for Gears of War. Will H3 hit 6m? Probably not, but 4m is easy in the US, and atleast 1m in others (but could hit 1.5 or more million.

Madden 08 - Expect this game to do GANGBUSTERS. Madden 07 sold around 3.5m units between PS2, X360, Wii and PS3 last year. This year, PS2 sales should be solid (1.4+m), X360 should lead (1.9m), and the Wii/PS3 versions should account for no less than 1m by EOY, but could even do 1.5m combined (remember, PS3/Wii versions hit 750k+ LTD. So I'd say around 3.75m for M08 is easy.

GTAIV should do real real well overall for both for the year. 6m could be done by EOY worldwide.

So 6m for GTAIV, 5m for H3 and 3m for M08 should get us upto 14m fairly easy. Now, the question is worldwide or NA?

2007 - Yes. All three titles have a couple of solid months on the market before Xmas hits.

US only - no. Madden will obviously sell most of its units in the US, but GTA especially will be a global hit.

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Where I think IGN are going wrong is underestimating the sales of OTHER titles. These three may get 12-15m in the US - but I think that will be closer to 10-15% of the total market. This year is unlike any other, ever seen before in the industry.

The number of quality titles coming out at once is mind boggling.

They can't have rated a lot of hits for titles that have not been heavily publised yet:

 - Mario & Sonic (sell strongly this year AND next year - all the way until the Olympics ends)
 - most/all PS3 titles (Uncharted, etc..)
 - Metroid, Galaxy, etc

I think M&S will sell 2-3m in the US this year (DS&Wii). Metroid will sell 1.5-2m. Galaxy will sell 2-3m. SSBB will sell 2-3m (depending when it launches).

Uncharted, Heavenly, LAIR, R&C - will sell an easy 8-10m between them.

(all these titles alone should get close to 15-20m in the US by end '07).

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Lets not forget Rock Band, Assassins, Bioshock, Mass Effect, Guitar Hero, Star Wars, NiGHTS, Burnout(07?), numerous WW2/WW1/Modern shooters, HalfLife 2 Box,  Need for Speed, yadda  yadda...

This ignores handhelds, PS2, existing titles (Wii Play), and much more. 

Its posible but not impossible, madden is the best selling foot ball game, GTA is very popular, and more than 4million halo 3 games sold. Its very possible.

If its us only No its almost impossible what I said ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ was WW.

Sounds right for only US sales for this year. All three games will continue to sell strong well into next year also don't forget GTA and Halo sales in Europe...

I think IGN is getting too excited about the prospect that Video Games sales might eclipse movie sales this fiscal year worldwide.

That's about the only thing I can honestly suggest is in that pipe of theirs that they have been *ahem* consulting. Is video-gaming not exploding fast enough for them or something?

We will see millions of units sold on a great many of titles in the next few years, but people, including "informed journalists" tend to forget that mass numbers for many of the household name games came from super-low price tags on console units themselves.

What is funny is that they put games like Too Human and Two Worlds as the most highly anticipated, but forget about Bioshock, Bkue Dragon, etc. The article loses all credibility since that point.

The article is only USA.  At the bottom it says IGN GameMetrics tracks the interest of every game to be sold in the USA.