IGN GamerMetrics: Madden, Halo 3, GTA IV to sell 15 million combined in 07'

[shams]

ioi said:
In 2007 and US only?

2007 - Yes. All three titles have a couple of solid months on the market before Xmas hits.

US only - no. Madden will obviously sell most of its units in the US, but GTA especially will be a global hit.

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Where I think IGN are going wrong is underestimating the sales of OTHER titles. These three may get 12-15m in the US - but I think that will be closer to 10-15% of the total market. This year is unlike any other, ever seen before in the industry.

The number of quality titles coming out at once is mind boggling.

They can't have rated a lot of hits for titles that have not been heavily publised yet:

 - Mario & Sonic (sell strongly this year AND next year - all the way until the Olympics ends)
 - most/all PS3 titles (Uncharted, etc..)
 - Metroid, Galaxy, etc

I think M&S will sell 2-3m in the US this year (DS&Wii). Metroid will sell 1.5-2m. Galaxy will sell 2-3m. SSBB will sell 2-3m (depending when it launches).

Uncharted, Heavenly, LAIR, R&C - will sell an easy 8-10m between them.

(all these titles alone should get close to 15-20m in the US by end '07).

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Lets not forget Rock Band, Assassins, Bioshock, Mass Effect, Guitar Hero, Star Wars, NiGHTS, Burnout(07?), numerous WW2/WW1/Modern shooters, HalfLife 2 Box,  Need for Speed, yadda  yadda...

This ignores handhelds, PS2, existing titles (Wii Play), and much more.