steven787 said: colonelstubbs said: That piece of mathematics makes me upset   My math is correct (or close).  The numbers are there to double check me, I would appreciate it, save me time.

You misunderstand. Im saying it is correct, and that it shows the PS3 has a mountain to climb to pass the 360

Two and a half years sounds reasonable and where I would put my guess.  But thats a long time and a lot of things can happen between now and then, there may be a new halo-like IP for Microsoft or Sony, Blue Ray may catch quickly or slowly, etc.

You can't predict when the PS3 will overtake the 360 based on current or past sales because it doesn't take into account the momentum that a particular machine may gain. I'd like to see what the effect of the Arcade model selling at $199 has for the 360 (I don't expect too much). If it doesn't help, I expect the PS3 to gradually gain momentum and pass the 360 by early 2010.

well take over delayed as the 360 price drop across all the rage confirmed should keep the 360 number one in america until sometime after the holidays

http://kotaku.com/5041705/kmart-want-in-on-that-sweet-360-price-cut-action

i don't think that x360s sales are gonna slowing down in 2009 (given the lower price point compared to 2008 in its strongest market)...so it all depends on ps3: if it starts selling like Wii in 2007 then it will overtake x360...otherwise simple math shows that overtaking x360 is simply an impossible task.

steven, at the end of your post you ask "will it matter"?

In my opinion, no, it won´t.

At this point, who gets 1st place betwen the HD systems is irrelevant, save for bragging rights (especially on MS´ part)...I say it´s irrelevant because:

1) PS3 and 360 are getting about 85%/90% of the same games from 3rd parties

2) For 2nd and 3rd place to really matter, there would have to be a huge difference betwen them, to the point the 3rd place system wouldn´t matter....and the PS3 and 360 are selling virtually the same numbers.

3) 3rd parties view the HD systems as a "single console", in order to recoup development costs (this has as a consequence number 1 up there)

All in all, they´re practically mirror images of each other now...getting most of the same games, selling virtually the same amount....so, I stand by what I said....this "war" between the PS3 and 360 is only good for bragging rights in this generation....well, maybe, just maybe, it might allow the "winning guy" a bit smoother transition into the next generation...but then again, maybe not.

 ==> we have a winner !

Also, dont expect too much from the Xbox360 price drop ...

"Also, dont expect too much from the Xbox360 price drop ..."

Why not, libellule?

Before the PS3 shortages the average gap was over 50k weekly WW.