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You can't predict when the PS3 will overtake the 360 based on current or past sales because it doesn't take into account the momentum that a particular machine may gain. I'd like to see what the effect of the Arcade model selling at $199 has for the 360 (I don't expect too much). If it doesn't help, I expect the PS3 to gradually gain momentum and pass the 360 by early 2010.