I don't think the Wii will even hit 40 million this year, let alone 44-49 million. It's only about 31 right now and still averages about 500,000 per month. August throgh October would bring in about 1.5 million in sales, followed by maybe 3-4 million total for the holidays (if production numbers have actually been increased). That only brings it to about, at best, 36.5 million by the end of 2008. Even by the end of the fiscal year (March 2009), it likely won't have reached 40 million. It'll probaby catch up to the SNES by the end of next year, 3rd quarter at best.

The DS on the other hand, will be well past 80 million by the end of the year and likely closing in on 90 million by the end of the fiscal year in March.

11 million consoles christmass time...ha ha ha. Good one.

For the bolded, do you mean just in the U.S.? Because it's doing significantly better than that worldwide, which is what I think the OP was referring to.

That said, I don't see it beating the SNES this year. Next year is all but certain, though.

A LOT better than the Wii.

Uhh.....Nintendo would have to sell more than 3 million consoles per month now to reach SNES install base before 01.01.2009....ain't gonna happen, sorry.

I dont think the wii will have 49 million sold by the end of this year. Probally by early next year will I see the wii passing the snes.

As of this posting time VGC has Wii @ 31.12m sold.

Based on the link below the Wii is selling about 350k per WEEK. (~1.4m/month)
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39313&end=39677

There are about 9 weeks before Holiday sales really start to kick off.
350*9 = 3.15m, which bring Wii to ~34.27m by the week of October 19th.

Last year from Mid October through the end of the year Wii sold ~6.74m units.
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39376&end=39453&weekly=1

Last year's monthly production was about 1.8m/month. This year's monthly production is about 2.5m. That's and increase of about 28% in supply. Given that Nintendo follows the same stockpiling plan of last year by percentage and the demand still out strips supply, You should see a similar increase in sales as compared to last year.

6.74 * 1.28 = 8.63m.

34.27 + 8.63 = 42.9m would be my lowest expectation. I still think Wii will end around 45m this year.

So, no, Wii will not beat SNES (49m) this year. But it will do it by the end of March 2009.

I think it will pass the SNES by April 2009.

Yeah I don't see that happening. I don't think they will have enough systems built.

It will definitely outsell the SNES. The SNES didn't do too well in Europe which the Wii has managed to crack.