I think the sellouts are ending in certain regions of the USA but its still spotty. To me, the real culprit is there haven't been any significant releases in a month or so.
If we do it by month:
January - supply constraints from Japanese holidays and big US & Eur demand in Nov-Dec 07'
February - same story for the first two weeks, but increasing demand in the run up to Smash Brothers, which had the best launch ever for a Nintendo game in March.
March - Smash Brothers debuts at over 2.5m in a month. Wii tops 700k for the first time outside a holiday in the Americas
April - Mario Kart is released to counter GTA and it does over 1m in a month. Wii tops 700k in the Americas again.
May - Wii Fit releases. The trifecta of Wii Fit/Brawl/Kart keeps Wii at 700k for the month.
June - No big Nintendo games. But...ongoing momentum from Mar-May. Rockband, Deca Sports, We Ski, Lego Indiana Jones essentially make up for it and keep Wii at about 700k.
July - No big Nintendo games. Guitar Hero Aerosmith & NCAA debut...and the Rockband debut carries over into June. Wii Fit and Mario Kart still driving some demand but momentum slows. Wii does ~600k but nothing big released after July 15.
August - Madden, Tiger Woods and Mario Baseball are the top titles. None of those really push hardware though. Wii should be at 400k-500k anyway though.
September - Wario, Offshore Tycoon, DDR, Star Wars: The Force Unleashed, De Blob, Lego Batman, Sim City Creator, We Cheer, Samba De Amigo, Line Rider 2 and Harvest Moon release. That pretty much covers all the demographic bases, and Wii Fit, Mario Baseball will probably still sell some Wiis too. Can't really see this month under 700k, could be as high as 1m.
October - Tons of sports, music and party games. Cooking Mama & MySims Kingdom too. Should be another 700k-1000k month.
For Nov & Dec if supply hold we'll see: Nov = 2.5x Oct, Dec = 5x Oct
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
(mostly)
