I don't think the Wii will reach demand this year. I think Nintendo is stockpiling units in time for the holidays.

The most interesting thing about this article—and the reason I wanted to post it here—is the chart of grey market pricing. As you can see, the low point in 2007 was $330 in the month of September. Now in August of '08 it's down to $269, so Nintendo is much closer to meeting demand than it was at any point in '07. If '08 trends mirror '07, then grey market pricing may actually fall below retail prices for a month or two.

I also expect Nintendo will be better prepared to deal with the holiday surge than they were last year. Perhaps not everybody who wants a white box will get one, but I predict the grey market price won't push past $400.

Semand is going to level off at current levels this fall and spring until the motion-plus games come out next year.

The thing is they went from ~1000k Nov 07' to ~1350k Dec 07'. This year they'll probably 500k-1000k in August to October, call it 750k/month on average, and something like 1.5m to 1.9m in Nov if supply iis there, and then to 3m to 4m in December.

~4m in the USA through July by NPD YTD, near to 5m in the Americas. 6.25m through Oct year to date in the USA is what I expect. If that actually happens then I think we can expect at least 3m for the holidays with 6m the upper end. I'm expecting 1.75m in Nov and 3m in December (supply constrained...again).

 Do you really make a profit reselling a console for 269$ that you bought for 250$ ?

Factor in Ebay's take and I hardly think those people are really making any cash...

The average price may include used or broken units.

Frankly, I'm happy the profit margins are way down.  It's about time people can't profit reselling the product on ebay -- it's better for people to buy it at a fair price.

283$ Learn to read.

Question, do you think it discourages a buyer from purchasing a Wii when they see the rape prices on eBay, and Amazon? I know I was very disappointed I couldn't find it anywhere. The prices on those sites made me pissed. >:[

...If I didn't luck up and find one at my local Target one day on chance I probably STILL wouldn't have one. =/

That really depends on the buyer, doesn't it?

Some people won't be able to impulse buy a Wii because the product won't be on the shelf when they're in the store. Others will find one on the shelf and buy it on impulse because they know they might not get another chance. They might have considered their purchase more carefully if supply was plentiful.

Some potential buyers will be put off by all the competition to buy Wiis. They won't be bothered to pay above retail prices or line up on a Sunday morning to get one. Others might be excited by the scarcity and enjoy telling stories about how they staked out a retailer for hours to get a Wii.

It's hard to know how all this plays out in the aggregate market. It would be an interesting and challenging thing to research.

Pretty much the same thing happened last year. At the end of the summer, Wii's started becoming available at stores. Once October hit though they quickly disappeared as people started buying them for the holidays.

Crazy people. I read on this forums about someone who already bought a Wii for Christmas and hiding it from his daughter until then; 4 months lol !