Well John Lucas, it's crunch time ;). If we take the end of July to be the last week with any days in July in it (ie, the week ending 5th of August, which I believe is also NPD July. Which I suppose could be plausible depending on which week Sunday is counted in, as I assume most Wiis are sold on Sunday), then the Wii has 5 weeks to sell 1.28 Million more units than the Xbox. To do so, it needs to outsell the Xbox by 256k units per week.

Last week the Wii sold 70k in Japan 93k in USA, and 64k in Others, for a total of 227k. This will net them 1.135 Million consoles,  or dropping 145k units short. Of course, this is assuming that no Xboxes sell, however, last week they sold 3k in Japan, 44k in America, 22k in Others for a total of 69k in a week or 345k over the period of a month. Meaning at last week's rate Nintendo will fall 490k units short.

You did pretty well with your prediction (I don't know when you made it, but I'm pretty sure it was a long time ago, way back when everyone was discounting the Wii, so it's quite impressive you got this close) but I'm afraid it looks like the Wii will overtake the Xbox360 in August (most likely, the same week that Metroid Prime 3 is released). To be honest, I'm a bit disappointed in Nintendo's abaility to ship Wiis, they're still selling out yet Nintendo isn't even selling 1 million per month. What happened to the extra manufacturing capacity? I suppose they're stockpiling for the holidays.

So John Lucas, do you still hold to your July prediction? Or do you give it up as a lost cause? Think something might convince the big N to release 1.5 Million Wiis over the course of July? When does everyone think that the Wii will finally overcome the Xbox?

It's going to be very late August or early September, either way, it's going to happen before Halo 3 is released. At least Halo 3 will boost the 360 sales while the Wii can't really boost its sales (since it sells out).

I sure hope they're stockpiling for the holidays if they're holding back at all...

It makes sense...you can sell a couple extra million now...or you can keep those for the holidays...when it really matters, and running out of consoles at the holidays can be a lot worse for Nintendo than running out July, August, or September.

I wouldn't be surprised if they've been holding back console for the last 4 months and continue to do so until November. If they held back 100-150k a month for 6 months that would give them an extra 600-900k consoles for the holidays while still providing a decent supply the rest of the year.

I said it would be the 2nd week in August by the time the Wii overtakes the 360.

Anyway Microsofts estimations were high again...they stated initially that they would sell 13-15m by the end of June, they then lowered this to 12m and in fact they only managed 10.1m.

And being outsold now isn't that bad, it is a lot of free press. If nintendo can't supply enough during this christmas period they might start to get some bad press about pissing on fans and so on.

@thread 

The intressting part is that Halo3 needs to sell a lot of consols to get back the lead, not to hold the lead. I must say that I didn't think xbox360 would have sold so bad during the spring/summer that we would be in that situation.

Now the question is if Microsoft can hold on to the lead in USA at least, Halo3 and GTA4 should mean that they could save the day, but for how long. Microsoft really need to focus on the casual market and getting the price down.

 I think a lot of people forget that you can't blame Nintendo for a high demand of their product.  They are getting them out there pretty quickly in large numbers, it's just the product is in high demand.  If anything, that says a good thing about the product.

The only game Nintendo has in July is Mario Strikers on the 30th as well, so I don't see hardware boosts coming with any particular software... either way, I think it's going to be hella close... I expect 360 sales to continue to dip this month (July) with the amount of main stream bad press it's been getting about hardware failure and until Halo 3.

It all depends on how much stock Nintendo feeds into the market, if they feed in enough to catch 360 they will, but if they don't then they wont.

The bad hardware press seems to be hurting the 360 a lot. One has to wonder where sales would be if it had a solid build and still powerful (like the PS3).

Nintendo has DQ: Swords in Japan on the 12th (of July).