superchunk said: All three are already R&D-ing their next consoles.
I doubt anyone new will join. Apple is trying with their iPhone, but no consoles. |
That's not necessarily true. Patents surfaced of a Wii-like interface for some kind of hardware being designed by Apple a month or two ago as revealed from IGN. And Apple was in the industry once before (albeit, unsuccessfully) with the Apple-Bandai Pippin during the 32/64-bit (Fifth) Generation.
We're at the slimmest point ever in console gaming--we have only three competing machines from only three competing commpanies. Go back a few years and it was a much more crowded realm with a lot more choices. The 2nd and 5th generations were the most crowded.
2nd: Atari 2600, 5200, ColecoVision, Vectrex, Intellivision, Fairchild Channel F, Odyssey II, etc.
5th: N64, Saturn, Playstation, Jaguar, 3DO, CD-i, Pippin, and the follow-up to the TurboGrafx-16/CD (it's name escapes me at the moment--it was the first designed like a tower), ill-fated Nuon, etc.
Frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing another entrant or two. Apple seems very likely to jump in, although I don't think that being able to play games on the iPhone will threaten either the PSP or DS in any way. After all, the installed userbase of iPhones is only about a million or so which is next to nothing compared to the PSP 30+ million or the DS as it approaches 80 million. EA is a company that I've theorized may try entering the fray by the next generation based on the way they gobble up other studios and their belief that the industry should be streamlined to run on just one dedicated console. I'd much prefer Apple to come in over EA.
As for the original post, Nintendo, Sony, and MS are all hard at work on their next consoles. Several ideas will be made, tested, and scrapped over the next few years until new designs, specs, costs, and features are ironed-out. I still believe, however, that this current generation will be fairly long-lived simply due to the now immense cost of developing games on these high-powered machines. Any console maker that tries to rush the next generation (like MS did this one) will likely end up shooting themselves in the foot where fiscally-conscious 3rd party companies are concerned. Many will only just begin turning profits in 2010, most finished the last two fiscal years with painful losses due to the much higher cost of transitioning to this new generation.