We all know its a foregone conclusion that the 360 version of the game will sell the most copies.  Most people also believe that the PS3 version will easily take 2nd--I do not.  Don't get me wrong, the PS3 version could indeed get 2nd in total sales, I just don't think it will do so very easily--if at all.  IMO the overall girth of the American Wii user base will drive sales of Madden 09 Wii All Play past the PS3 in total lifetime sales.  Sure, the launch may (and probably will) go to PS3, but its quite possible for the wii to win overall. 

Before I get into that though, lets first look at some rough numbers from last year's iteration and see what we can do with them:

LTD Sales for Each game are:

Madden 08 PS3=841,000
Madden 08 Wii=775,000

Last year when Madden 08 released the American user base for PS3 and Wii were at 1.8 and 4.3 million respectively. Today, each console's American base is at 5.5 and 13.4, respectively.   Each has grown ~67%.

The launch week sales  were ~244,000 for the PS3 version of Madden 08, and were ~74,000 for Wii version.  These total's represent 13% of the August 2007 total user base for PS3, and 1.7% of the 08/07 user base for the wii.  It should be noted however, that the launch week sales for the PS3 version represent 29.5 percent of total sales LTD, and only represent 9.5% of the Wii's total sales.  In other words, the launch for the wii is not as crucial because of the system's typically longer legs.

Let's assume for the moment that these attach rates stay exactly the same for the game, and only the userbases have changed.  If this happens, 13% of the 5.5 million PS3 owners will buy Madden 09 on launch week, and this comes out to ~715,000.  Likewise, 1.7% of Wii owners buy launch week, and this comes out to ~240,000.  Extrapolating further, (assuming the legs of each are approximately the same percentage wise), Madden 09 will have sold 2.5 million copies on PS3 by the time Madden 2010 comes out, and All-Play would be just 100k shy of that at 2.4 million.

Now, I obviously don't think either console will push these kind of numbers, despite the fact they've both grown quite healthily over the past year.  What I do want to point out here though is that it will be a much closer race than people are expecting. 

Furthermore, as I said in the introduction, I believe that the overall girth of new Wii owners (9.1 million more American Wii owners v. only 3.7 million more ps3 owners) will push the wii further, despite the PS3's higher attach rate.  Frankly, I believe that the 13% launch week attach rate of last year's iteration will drop significantly for the PS3, while the Wii's attach rate of 1.7% will drop less so.  In fact, with the addition of Call Your Shot in the All-Play version--not to mention a now strong online component for Wii--I believe it is possible (though perhaps not very likely) for this attach rate to actually increase. 

What it comes down to is basically three factors.  For one, the 13% launch attach rate for last years PS3 version was insanely high, and I don't think it can maintain that rate with its increased userbase.  Seeing as its launch sales accounted for 29.5% of total sales LTD, it brings the PS3 numbers down to earth.  For two, the Wii's more modest 1.7% launch attach rate simply doesnt have as far to fall, and could even go up with the afformentioned new features included in all-play.  Finally, the legs that Wii games typically have, and the increased production capacity that Nintendo is now capable of (to grow userbase), makes me think All-play could break 1.5 million in sales. 

As such, here are my final predictions for total sales by August '09:

Wii Madden 09 All-Play - 1.6 million

PS3 Madden 09 -  1.4 million

nice. it will be close. but if wii doesnt win its complete fail i mean it has over 5 million more units sold

The good thing is that all the three consoles will have a new million-seller.

And yes I agree with you X360»Wii»PS3.

I also think that Christmas 2009 Wii Version will get number one spot.

i also think then wii version will sell more

I think PS3 may sell more and the Wii's box art seems to be a turnoff for some people...

The PS2 version will most likely take 2nd place as it was just a bit under the 360 total for Madden 08.(2.32 million vs. 2.16 million) The 360 total will most likely grow and the PS2 version will drop a bit. I don't believe the PS3 nor the Wii(well maybe the Wii has a chance at it) have a chance at beating the PS2 version's #s.

 Admittedly I just didn't care enough about the PS2 version to analyze it.  I do think it will take a pretty big hit this year though--we're settled in to the next gen enough that it might only barely break a million.

The Wii version might push past the PS3 version in 2009, but I really can't see it beating out the PS3 version anytime this year.

I had first week sales at a minimum of 90k 1st week for the Wii version. However, the numbers you posted there are different from what I was looking at (30% increase from Madden 08). 240k is amazing if it were to happen.

If the Wii version does it -- and I'd say its 50-50 -- it will be legs and not first-week sales.

Wii games seem to have a very different sales arc. Unfortunately, a lot of people seem to forget that and are ready to call a game a bomb after Week 1. Then it will go out and sell half-a-million copies over its lifetime.

I always wanted to play Madden AFTER the season because I need my football fix. I am closer to the Wii target than the PS3/Xbox 360 audiance. (I've been playing games longer than many posters have been alive). So this may not be an atypical reaction/pattern.

Mike from Morgantown