Interesting concept on tracking but I wonder how precise it could get us to a good estimate. But it's intriguing so keep it up.

I think it's a good idea. It would be only an estimation, but the method seems quite right.  I thought there were very little 360 games with other data missing and they were the older ones, but looking at games like skate (possible million seller) or eternal sonata, it would be fair to take a look at them.

It's the same thing I do to project Xbox Live Arcade sales. In those cases, my numbers are within 10% of Microsoft actuals in most cases.

Retail tracking is different, and not as accurate, I think, mainly with the fact that not all titles are going to be online. Some games that have a heavier online component have a lower multiplier than one that is SP-centric (good case would be Rainbow Six: Vegas versus Oblivion).

I wouldn't advise these numbers be used in replacement for ANY system VGC has. I wholeheartedly endorse what VGC is doing with the Others/European numbers, and the MGC numbers seem to suggest that the VGC numbers are in a very similar arena. However, VGC hasn't tracked every X360 game in Europe since launch...MGC has. Thats why I think that if no other numbers exist (Shipping #s, GTK/Chart-Track), it would be reasonable to use them.

Because in the examples I gave, VGC has no data for the games. Blue Dragon stopped being reported almost immediately after launch, and the rest have no data whatsoever...This isn't going to effect million sellers by any stretch of the imagination. Even Ace Combat 6, after using the numbers, couldn't of reached 1m with the extrapolations. But it does give a better insight into what sells in Europe.

I would still argue for a conservative estimate. The point is that gamer cards become less reliable over time not more so. People sell old games, buy used games, and lend others their copy of a game. A single copy of a game can end up on a dozen gamer cards. In the absence of hard sales data you have to be conservative. You need to set a firm baseline and stick close to it for any title that has been out for over a certain period of time.

Your estimate for Blue Dragon shows the flaw in your system. How can anyone take that figure seriously. I cannot take it seriously and I really loved the game. I think the title should have those kind of sales, but I am a realist. I have no expectation that the title has sold over a hundred thousand copies in the other region.

I think you should run a standard candle type of test with your system. Use a very old game for the market with known sales. Perhaps you will have to use a resource outside of this site, and see what kind of deviation you are looking at. I can about guarantee the older the title is the farther you will be off. That is not to say this wouldn't be a good method for tracking new releases this site has missed.

However I think my multiple is a conservative safe estimate you really should consider for the older titles. Over time the figures are going to get more wrong then right. I would wager if you run Blue Dragon in a few months your upward estimate will be much higher even though it is far from likely that the title is even to be found new in those regions.

And I took those into consideration when providing the results. The low estimate is a 3x multiplier. Blue Dragon isn't even a year old in the Others regions. I have tracked retail sales vs. MGC for OVER a year now, and no game comes close to being < 3x by 1 year into it's lifetime. 3.5 is about the lowest I've seen for any given title a year into it's life. I agree that used copies, and rentals can inflate numbers, which is why I gave a range, with the lower end (about 180,000 copies).

And for the record: VGC reports 50,000 copies of Blue Dragon being sold through in North America this year. Quite a hardy number of games being sold, no? Why is it that a game like BD couldn't of sold more than the VGC-reported 60,000 copies LTD in others, especially with how it debuted in Spain?

Lost Odyssey is a good comparible, in this case, I believe. Lost Odyssey has seen 100% more sales in North America according to VGC, and should of tracked similarly in Europe, if not a little bit behind (as Europe does prefer more DQ-esque RPGs than the US does)....Yet VGC shows that Lost Odyssey sales in Others is over 350% higher than Blue Dragon! That is a very large discrepancy...One that we should question before just assuming that the VGC-quoted number of 60,000 units sold in Europe in a year is indeed accurate.

And one final thing to add:

The biggest question mark on "others" data, in terms of VGC's coverage is the absolute lack of probable data coming from South East Asia, minus Austrailia/NZ. To my knowledge, VGC has absolutely no data from those countries' software sales, and very minimal hardware.

Despite this, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong are rather "big" countries for the Xbox 360. Is it any wonder that *gasp* VGC has no data for those 3 countries, and actually buy Japanese RPGs?

Lets take a look at MGC sales for LO and BD in those countries:

Blue Dragon: 11,470 Gamercards in Taiwan, SK, and HK (18.8% of Others)
Lost Odyssey: 7,742 Gamercards in Taiwan, SK, and HK (11.9% of Others)
Grand Theft Auto IV: 9,810 Gamercards in Taiwan, SK, and HK (3.0% of Others).

Is that not compelling? What I am trying to convey is:

1) VGC does not track SE Asia data very reliabily
2) MGC does.
3) Lost Odyssey and Blue Dragon (especially Blue Dragon) have significantly higher marketshares in South East Asia than typical Xbox 360 games.

Add it all together, and it makes perfect sense when you want to argue the validity of my methods. When we talk "others" we're not always just talking about Europe. We're talking about obscure South East Asia nations that MGC does have valid information for, and VGC has nothing of the sorts. XBL user bases have correlated perfectly in terms of Microsoft quotes, and hard shipping data to most regions - MGC states that 60% of Xbox 360 Live users are in North America. Why can't you believe that if the hardware data of live users correlates perfectly, the software does as well?

Just because 90% of games sell at a certain rate in others (usually 50% of NA sales), and is indeed accurate, doesn't mean that you can throw out the 10% that break the mold, and do very well in Europe, and Others. It's not like the data is randomly like this with Western-centric games like Overlord, Grand Theft Auto, or Halo....Its nearly exclusive for J-centric games that can easily cater to Asian audiences.