I would still argue for a conservative estimate. The point is that gamer cards become less reliable over time not more so. People sell old games, buy used games, and lend others their copy of a game. A single copy of a game can end up on a dozen gamer cards. In the absence of hard sales data you have to be conservative. You need to set a firm baseline and stick close to it for any title that has been out for over a certain period of time.
Your estimate for Blue Dragon shows the flaw in your system. How can anyone take that figure seriously. I cannot take it seriously and I really loved the game. I think the title should have those kind of sales, but I am a realist. I have no expectation that the title has sold over a hundred thousand copies in the other region.
I think you should run a standard candle type of test with your system. Use a very old game for the market with known sales. Perhaps you will have to use a resource outside of this site, and see what kind of deviation you are looking at. I can about guarantee the older the title is the farther you will be off. That is not to say this wouldn't be a good method for tracking new releases this site has missed.
However I think my multiple is a conservative safe estimate you really should consider for the older titles. Over time the figures are going to get more wrong then right. I would wager if you run Blue Dragon in a few months your upward estimate will be much higher even though it is far from likely that the title is even to be found new in those regions.
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