Wow are you going to lose that one.

Read my other post where I compared it to FF X, and actually referenced the numbers.  Also, if I can't use past trends for analysis I don't know what the hell you're basing your argument on.  That's some rank hypocrisy there.  Surely you can do better.

what past trends are you using insisting that install base limitations will limit the sales for FF XIII? Im not saying to you cant use past trends im saying by looking at the install base of proven franchises and FF in general jumping form PS to PS2 and even comparing FFX with FF XII we see that clearly install base doesnt matter when we see FF XII sold roughly 2 million less than FF X. So im saying you cant use a past trend that doesnt exist as a reaosn for analysis. I AM using the past trends of proven franchises DMC, MGS and FF jumping generations and install base not effecting their last game on a previous console to the new one on the newer console's sales.

You, on the other hand, are ignoring the actual numbers and only applying basic uninformed logic that if Game A releases on Console A with 20 million install base and sells 2 million then Game B releasing on Console B with 5 Million install base should not sell more than 500k. And im proving you wrong via the past trends. I see no hypocrisy.

The hypocrisy was you condemning me for using past trends, but relying on them yourself.

Also, I see you still haven't read my post on FFX (further up in this very thread for God's sake) which as the first FF on the PS2 is a valid comparison.  For your benefit, I'll repost it.

"After actual analysis with the numbers I've got some revisions to my prediction.

PS2 userbase in Japan at FFX launch = 5.1 million, 76% of FFX sales occurred within 1 month of release, attaching at 44.59%

Following current trends the PS3 will have sold 4.1 million in Japan at the end of next year. If FFXIII trends similarly to X then it will sell 1.83 million in its first month, and go on to top out at around 2.41 million. That's more than my initial prediction, but I still think it's easily possible for the 360 to move more than 2.5 million copies of a huge title like FF combining the sales of two vastly larger regions. I would stilll take Dollas side of that bet.

Actual numbers may vary, in either direction based on reviews, demos, etc... Take from this what you will."

 @ bolded I stopped considering FF XII and the 20 million base after that very first post, but you seem to want to ignore everything I've said since then.  Read the argument you think you're rebutting before trying to actually rebut it.

Read my actual analysis based on X, then come back and act like you know what I'm trying to say.

okay. sorry i didnt know you "stopped considering" youre flawed information and didnt let everyone else know that. And regardless...the discussion at hand involves a past iteration of a franchise on a lesser generation console moving forward to a new generation. The trending of % based on X is not whats essentially being debated. It doesnt matter how it trends, So far this generation has shown that stable franchises jumping to HD sell incredibly well regardless of attach rate of a previous generation, so even extrapolating X's sales in regards to install base to the PS3 is rather silly, imo.

FYI, I did, it's in the post where I quoted myself, (edit: right here: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1114191, and in red above) just look back over the entire thread. No hard feelings though.

FF IX to FF X was also a "past iteration of a franchise on a lesser generation console moving forward to a new generation," that's why I think the comparison is valid. Also, that 44.59% it attached at was insane, so it kind of represents a "best-case" scenario.

I also think the extension of the trend line for PS3 sales to arrive at the 4.1 figure is valid because I see no other tide-shifting release for PS3 until FF XIII. While there will no doubt be people who buy the console for the game at release, it would be naive to think a similar thing didn't happen for FF X. That's why I think the FF X trend is a reasonably accurate baseline for prediction.

@de85. (i dont want to keep quoting to create a 7 mile post, haha)

good discussion, its tough on a forum thats for sure but i see what youre saying. I just really think FF13 is going to wonders for the franchise based on only the vids we have seen mostly because the art and style seems so breathtaking if implemented without hiccups.

I however do see 2 tide shifting titles that should hit Japan hard and well...LBP and White Knight. If WKC is solid it will do wonders for the FF audience and LBP will do wonders for getting consoles in homes. I think LBP is the only real wildcard here. If the game takes off it could change not only a bit of the PS3 perception, which i think is the PS3's main downfall. It will be interesting but at this point im firmly in the camp of FF13 being a HUGE seller based on what ive seen from generation to generation franchises.

I agree FF13 will give PS3 a much needed boost in Japan, and I have no doubt it will sell a ton world wide.  My point in running the numbers was to show that it would be difficult for just Japan to outsell the 360 version WW, which is the bet the OP was about. 

LBP is one of the factors that could influence 13 to stray from the trend set by 10, hence my disclaimer after the analysis.

Lost Odyssey and ES aren't that great, imo.

That said, neither game scored very well, and neither game had much going for it outside of internet hype. I have a feeling FFXIII will be much larger.

I didn't mean to come off hostile. I was just commenting. I mean, nobody makes a bet they don't think they're gonna win, do they?

I give it 50/50, I'm not taking sides, because I can't really be sure with current information.