My Final Fantasy XIII Prediction

[steverhcp02]

De85 said:

steverhcp02 said:

De85 said:

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Read my other post where I compared it to FF X, and actually referenced the numbers. Also, if I can't use past trends for analysis I don't know what the hell you're basing your argument on. That's some rank hypocrisy there. Surely you can do better.

 

what past trends are you using insisting that install base limitations will limit the sales for FF XIII? Im not saying to you cant use past trends im saying by looking at the install base of proven franchises and FF in general jumping form PS to PS2 and even comparing FFX with FF XII we see that clearly install base doesnt matter when we see FF XII sold roughly 2 million less than FF X. So im saying you cant use a past trend that doesnt exist as a reaosn for analysis. I AM using the past trends of proven franchises DMC, MGS and FF jumping generations and install base not effecting their last game on a previous console to the new one on the newer console's sales.

 

You, on the other hand, are ignoring the actual numbers and only applying basic uninformed logic that if Game A releases on Console A with 20 million install base and sells 2 million then Game B releasing on Console B with 5 Million install base should not sell more than 500k. And im proving you wrong via the past trends. I see no hypocrisy.

The hypocrisy was you condemning me for using past trends, but relying on them yourself.

Also, I see you still haven't read my post on FFX (further up in this very thread for God's sake) which as the first FF on the PS2 is a valid comparison. For your benefit, I'll repost it.

"After actual analysis with the numbers I've got some revisions to my prediction.

PS2 userbase in Japan at FFX launch = 5.1 million, 76% of FFX sales occurred within 1 month of release, attaching at 44.59%

Following current trends the PS3 will have sold 4.1 million in Japan at the end of next year. If FFXIII trends similarly to X then it will sell 1.83 million in its first month, and go on to top out at around 2.41 million. That's more than my initial prediction, but I still think it's easily possible for the 360 to move more than 2.5 million copies of a huge title like FF combining the sales of two vastly larger regions. I would stilll take Dollas side of that bet.

Actual numbers may vary, in either direction based on reviews, demos, etc... Take from this what you will."

@ bolded I stopped considering FF XII and the 20 million base after that very first post, but you seem to want to ignore everything I've said since then. Read the argument you think you're rebutting before trying to actually rebut it.

Read my actual analysis based on X, then come back and act like you know what I'm trying to say.

 

 

okay. sorry i didnt know you "stopped considering" youre flawed information and didnt let everyone else know that. And regardless...the discussion at hand involves a past iteration of a franchise on a lesser generation console moving forward to a new generation. The trending of % based on X is not whats essentially being debated. It doesnt matter how it trends, So far this generation has shown that stable franchises jumping to HD sell incredibly well regardless of attach rate of a previous generation, so even extrapolating X's sales in regards to install base to the PS3 is rather silly, imo.