De85 said:
steverhcp02 said:
De85 said:
steverhcp02 said:
De85 said:
FF XII sold 2.42 million in Japan on a userbase of around 20 million. Just to put things in perspective. I think when all is said and done there are going to be a lot of disappointed people in this thread.
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please. Anyone following sequals or carry over franchises to new systems knows that past generation userbases need to go out the window.
Devil May Cry 3 to 4 in japan.
Metal Gear Solid 2 or 3 to 4 in japan
Then we can compare Final Fantasy X to Final Fantasy XII......people get crazy hyped for new generation favorites and it perks sales in such a way using install base is tricky and not even worth it.
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I understand the limitations of using past trends to predict the future, but it's the only thing for which we have hard data so it's the only thing we can really use, unless you trust fanboy "hunches," which I personally don't.
I did note at the end of my last post that there could be any one of a number of factors that could swing the final totals in either direction. The analysis is just a jumping off point.
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no. its really not a jumping off point when the only substance is whats flawed to begin with. You cant admit the trends dont fit and then use that very trend for "analysis" with any credibility. Proven franchises do NOT suffer from lack of install base when jumping new generations. When discussing new IP's its a fair judgement imo and i it would take more research which i dont care to do. But while analyzing proven franchises making a jump to new systems, install base has been irrelavent damn near everytime in regards to sales....ESPECIALLY Final Fantasy as shown with X's sales compared to 8 and 9, hell even 7 and in comparison to XII as well.
The only major exception is GT5P in japan in comparison to GT4P but given th ePS2 to PS3 install base and sales combined for Europe and Japan overall sales still fit the trend of first gen franchises not suffering.
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Read my other post where I compared it to FF X, and actually referenced the numbers. Also, if I can't use past trends for analysis I don't know what the hell you're basing your argument on. That's some rank hypocrisy there. Surely you can do better.
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what past trends are you using insisting that install base limitations will limit the sales for FF XIII? Im not saying to you cant use past trends im saying by looking at the install base of proven franchises and FF in general jumping form PS to PS2 and even comparing FFX with FF XII we see that clearly install base doesnt matter when we see FF XII sold roughly 2 million less than FF X. So im saying you cant use a past trend that doesnt exist as a reaosn for analysis. I AM using the past trends of proven franchises DMC, MGS and FF jumping generations and install base not effecting their last game on a previous console to the new one on the newer console's sales.
You, on the other hand, are ignoring the actual numbers and only applying basic uninformed logic that if Game A releases on Console A with 20 million install base and sells 2 million then Game B releasing on Console B with 5 Million install base should not sell more than 500k. And im proving you wrong via the past trends. I see no hypocrisy.
