HEAD TO HEAD CONCLUSION

Comparing 3^rd Party Software Sales for the past 12 months ending Jun 08:

X360 = 76(*) million

Wii = 75.6(*) million

PS3 = 60.8(*) million

In total, the Xbox 360 platform has definitely sold MORE 3^rd Party software in TOTAL.

In the past 12 months, X360 has also MOST LIKELY sold more 3^rd Party software than the Wii.

In the coming quarters, I would expect the Wii to actually sell more 3^rd Party software in total, due to the sheer unit volume lead that it has over the X360, which is currently at around 9.5 million and INCREASING.

While MSFT is correct that it is selling at a higher rate (attach ratio) and more recent TOTAL and LTD 3^rd Party Software sales, Nintendo is also correct that it is selling 3^rd Party software at high unit TOTALs (even at a lower attach rate).  Ultimately, its unit lead over both PS3 and X360 will make it the leading 3^rd Party Software seller very soon, even as soon as next quarter.

If not, then it is more a testament to the really high attach ratios, the generally hardcore gamers and/or the higher quantity of critically acclaimed games on the X360.

ENJOY AND DISCUSS.  As always, any questions, comments, suggestions, debates are welcome.

thank you, good analysis, i would have thought that 360 might have been higher, just because so few first party ms games, which in theory would benifit 360 3rd parties and even help ps3 games, by offsetting costs with sales, the wii has to carry its own load, so it seems most developers are still risking less money, though it is good to see things such as dead rising wii, so that costs can be distributed to all 3 consoles, and new games can be enjoyed by all.... dead rising 2, crackdown 2 ftw

A couple things:

1) All third party console games have really low attach rates in Japan this generation. There are like 9.5m Wiis/360s/PS3s in Japan right now but only like 11 3rd party games on those platforms have topped 200k in Japan so far (12 if you include Mario & Sonic which was co-published by Nintendo & Sega). Its something like 1 to 2 games bought at most per console in Japan.

2) 360 sw numbers are weak in most of Europe. PS3 sw does much better in Europe. Its kind of the inverse of the USA, except that the userbases in Europe are nearly identical...

3) Worldwide I'd peg the 360 split at something like 75-25 3rd party to 1st party...PS3 is probably 65-35 3rd to 1st party worldwide...Wii is probably approaching 50-50 now that Nintendo hasn't had a big release in a few months.

@ the source, thanks for reading.

I see. We can use those ratios for the analysis.

1. OK. For Nintendo, I agree it's probably likely 50/50 for 3rd party software.

2. OK. 360 worldwide - approx. 75% 3rd party

3. OK. PS3 worldwide - approx. 65% 3rd party.

In this case, the Wii, for the past 12 months are either tied or sold more 3rd party than 360.

Though LTD, the MSFT conclusions still stand.

Also, going forward, the Nintendo 3rd party leads per quarter will also stand.

Good analysis; seems to back up pretty conclusively the theory that Nintendo will soon surpass MS in overall sales by virtue of installed base alone, regardless of any attach ratios.

Other than that, The Source seems to have given you a decent vetting of the numbers, although I am a tad surprised he thinks MS's 1st party is so high. I would have assumed it was closer to 18-20%. I am more than willing to accept his theory though; he's much better with the numbers than I am.

Can't wait till your next thread; if you need help finding numbers or whatever, send me a PM. I'll gladly help you sift through investor reports if you need it.

Also, a tad off-topic; MS's investor relations site is annoying to find any data on. You're a better person than I am to put this much effort into finding any data in it...

Most likely by next quarter - end Sep 08, Nintendo will be selling MORE 3rd party software in TOTAL than the 360.

I should bookmark some of these financial statements stuff, but I keep forgetting..

Hence source had to give me the correct shipment numbers... haha

Was it much higher for PS2, XBox and Gamecube in Japan for 3rd party?

The Source is correct... Ifthe ratio in USA is 7.5 for the X360 it will not be the same worldwide because is is almost assuredly lower in other regions.

In fact we know it is lower in Japan... just check VGCs Japan weekly, its 4.64 in Japan.... Of course Japan having such a small portion of X360s sales means it won't affect the WW total much, but "others" ratio will also be lower than 7.5, my guess would be around 6-6.5, but I just pulled that out of mid-air.

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You're ratio of 1st:3rd party sales is correct though.... I am pretty sure MS only takes about 10% of sales... Sony is probbably between 20% and 30%

Edit... Hmmm. The Source clearly thinks MS and Sony 1st:3rd ratios are much more even than I did... I'd trust him over me if I were you

@TWRoO

Yup, I did mention that the 7.5 attach rate is for "sold to consumers" as per NPD North America.

Therefore, I still used 7.5 worldwide as sold to retail worldwide, to take into account shipped software, not sold to consumers.

In that sense, Wii is VERY LIKELY selling more total 3rd Party than X360 going forward.

Though, I think, when X360 talks about 3rd Party - they are probably talking about the BIG 3rd party publishers, and not the little tiny developer that may make 1 game for the Wii - in my opinion.

Edit:

As the software numbers for both Nintendo and Sony are shipped/sold to retailers - from their financial statements.