I still think you're wrong, but we all have missed you!

At the current rate of sales, for Nintendo to approach a near 100% sell through, they absolutely will have to have at least a 4 week period (from Black Friday through Christmas) in which they average or exceed 1 million consoles sold per week.

I believe 4m+ sales for the peak month of the year is extremely within the realm of the possible.

As for the yearly prediction, it is fairly simple. Production was reported by Nintendo as increasing to 2.4m/month as of July, which means they have the capacity to produce no more than 14.4m consoles over that six month period through year's end. Sales as of the first week of July were well under 30 million. I believe it was about 28.5 million, according to VGC.

What this means if those numbers are correct, is that over 45 million in retail sales by year's end is very unlikely unless Nintendo had at least 2 million consoles in warehouses on hold. Not impossible, but to believe Nintendo has 17 million consoles (for a round 60m by end of 2008) sitting quietly for the time in which they plan on carpet bombing retail outlets with that much unsold stock goes beyond unrealistic. No one, not even Nintendo's own accountants would project this.

Production has been increased every six months; 3.0m/month in Q1 2009 is very likely (early as January) depending on how well console sales are. If they do as well as last year, it's guaranteed. 4.0m/month is highly unlikely, until the back end of 2009, if such a production increase is made at all. If sales drop back down to an average of 350k/week, or even a phenomenal 500k/week, why would Nintendo peg production at 1 million/week?

Until new data and catalysts are present, some times you just have to make a common sense call, and leave the wild predictions to the marketers who are trying to attract investors.

i predicted 2 billion software for the wii a while ago and people just ignore me lol

yay

If TheSource says that we haven't seen Wii peak year yet and Nintendo is saying that sustained value in innovation will mark growth yet to express itself then I am inclined to believe your 4.1 million a month is still pretty "bold".

But meh you got some courage and maybe vision.

Anyway I like the avatar, there seems to be a resemblence to Obama in the Rock though.

Rock is still my favorite WWF superstar.

Stone Cold was soo much better

I don't if they'll ship 4.1m a month but do the math:

~700k in the USA...800k in the Americas...in Mar/Apr/May/Jun

That  could easily be ~1.5m to 2m in the Americas in Nov and 3m-4.5m in Dec just in the Americas. If Oct is 1m, Nov could be 2-2.5m and Dec could theoretically be 4m-5m.

DS shipped over 11m in a quarter. Wii did 6.96m in Oct-Dec 07'.

No reason to expect Wii to ship under 9m in Oct-Dec 08' and it wouldn't be hard to reach 11-12m shipped if they had them.
..thats close to 4m/month three months. The issue is alot of it might be stockpiled.

I suspect there will be a quarter where Wii does maybe 14-18m shipped, especially if the motion plus tech is well-utilized in holiday games or if Wii has a price drop. Oct-Dec 2009 probably is the most likely quarter for the peak.

Wii still has at least five major games in Japan (Animal Crossing, Wii Music, Monster Hunter, Wii Sports Resort, Pikmin) by my count so I can see DS & Wii being the opposite in peaks - early Japan peak for DS, late west peak for DS, early west peak for Wii, late Japan peak for Wii.

Amen.

2000th post!

John is back! Good to see you :)

I predict there will be 48-52 million Wiis sold by the end of this year.

 your 360 number in ameriuca are the opposite,your minimum is higher then maximum