At this rate, how much time would it take for the PSP to catch the DS in JP?

At this rate, the PSP outselling the DS for an average of 10,000, it would take almost 25 years (or 1,200 weeks) to catch just the DS (currently in Japan: PSP 10 million and DS 22 million)

Is that correct?

The math is about right. The problem is the PSP doesn't seem to be following the rules: it got a massive bump when the TV tuner was launched, an even bigger one when Monster Hunter came out, and it's only slowly dying. Unless something else comes along soon, it'll back at parity with the "saturated" DS three months from now, and below it by next year.

But like I said, it's its own little beast, so it might surge again at any moment.

The DS surge was from Dragon Quest. It should be going back down to 40k soon enough. The PSP is keeping steady along with the Wii, whereas the DS is facing an identity crisis sales wise (weekly).

I agree with Montana, though Pokemon Platinum is around the corner and sales will skyrocket again. PSP has been getting very good games in a weekly basis, thats what kept the interest alive, and it should continue like that for a while.

I would never dream of it catching up with the DS. Hey... It's selling well and it's getting pretty nifty games in the lineup so what's their to lose?

The DS is at 60k because of DQ V. I do think it will stay high for a while though because Pokemon Platinum, then DQVI, then DQIX, and Chrono Trigger, and KH 358/2 and tons of other smaller games releasing this year in Japan.

we'll have new handhelds by then...

I don't see it happening ever though. The new Handhelds will make the sales of the PSP decrease far before it reaches saturation like the DS did, so it won't ever happen.

why would we have new handhelds any time soon? The DS is still selling 500,000 units per week WW. To release a new handheld any time soon would be madness.

I think the point of this thread is that it would take far too much time for the PSP to catch or pass the DS in Japan. Might as well be a billion years.

Also, again, PSP Japanese sales are a talking point. Japan is the only region in gaming where a Sony system is outpacing a Nintendo system, and the likely culprit is saturation. Still, it's not selling the software like the DS, more like the PS3, with big titles causing large software spikes, however, unlike the PS3, the PSP has no sister console to make 3rd party development seem more lucrative, nor does the increased development cost associated with the console, along with poor software sales, bode well for profitability of smaller games for the console. 3rd party developers realized this about 2 years ago. We're seeing the effects of it now.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=33043

Delusions of Sony fans act like this mild outselling of the DS in Japan, is gonna translate to more games in the states from Japanese developers, or change anything. Basically, this is one of those useless facts you should keep in mind for gameshows. Not an omen, or a momentum swing. That's given. Thus, the discussion of it as a negative for the DS is more of a "gotcha" justification for owning a PSP, rather than an important or meaningful piece of information. The damage control of saturation, while likely true, isn't simply labeled as damage control by the Sony faithful. It's outright denied. Must less the assertion that the DS actually started the current handheld boom in Japan, which might have actually contributed to PSP sales.

Worldwide the DS is still nearly outselling the PSP 3 to 1, which is just about the current userbase ratio.

Anyone who wants to pretend the PSP outselling the DS in Japan is a sign of things to come worldwide, or a failure for the DS, needs to be reminded of the reality of the current situation of the console, relative to its nearest competitor.

It's very similar to being homeless, living in a trash can, and flaming a rich guy because he has mud on his shoes.

Now I have nothing against the PSP and I'm happy to see it prosper in Japan. However, when the DS starts getting insulted for these rag-tag talking points, I'll speak up.