The Wii is presently being produced at nearly 50% faster than the PS2 ever was. The PS2's peak monthly production was 1.7m. The Wii was at 1.8m for all of last year - and now it's been ramped up to 2.4m. Of course, retailers and Nintendo are stocking up on them, so they're not selling at those rates right now. The holiday season will certainly make up for that, though.

Presently, the Wii is selling at about 1.5m/month, and this is during the slowest part of the year. If it keeps up, it will easily sell 25m+ this year, effectively putting it FAR beyond the 40m that people are saying it has to pass this year in order to beat PS2. Likely, it will finish the year off between 43 and 45 million with present rates in mind.

Combine that with much of what Jacob said, and it's obvious that the Wii has an extremely high chance of beating the PS2. The only factor in play is the Wii's lifespan, and I expect it will easily prove to have a tremendous one.

yes, if it's available long enough (6 years+)

With games like Wii sports resort and more wii series like wii fit 2 wii music and all the casual stuff I think its possible. That and better 3rd party support will make it print even more cash.

lets wait untill next year

Oh hell yes it will. All market leaders live long, not only Playstations. And Nintendo has already said that they're going to release the Wii successor only if the Wii sales drop off dramatically.

Wii will pass PS2 BEFORE its seventh birthday, and it will keep on going until say 150-175 million units.

lol@Gearbox' signature. How in fuck hell could Wii only sell 69 million lifetime, and PS3 104 million lifetime?

As long as it has a long life it could destroy the PS2.

It would really come down to the life-span of wii, and also the momentum it carries into its 4th year
If the wii sales for 2010-2011 are the same as this year, and the life span is more than 6 years, the yes , Wii will take down PS2,

Yes, it definately will.

Oh, the fanboy FUD i see in this thread makes me laugh. So far the only fact that i have seen that is against Wii outselling PS2 is PS2:s high failure rate, which caused high number of replacement consoles.

@kira hibiki: As you can see how genious overunity motor Nintendo has made.

of course it will

Yes, it very likely will.  Then next gen we can say "Will the [leading console] outsell the legendary 'WII'?"