The Wii is presently being produced at nearly 50% faster than the PS2 ever was. The PS2's peak monthly production was 1.7m. The Wii was at 1.8m for all of last year - and now it's been ramped up to 2.4m. Of course, retailers and Nintendo are stocking up on them, so they're not selling at those rates right now. The holiday season will certainly make up for that, though.
Presently, the Wii is selling at about 1.5m/month, and this is during the slowest part of the year. If it keeps up, it will easily sell 25m+ this year, effectively putting it FAR beyond the 40m that people are saying it has to pass this year in order to beat PS2. Likely, it will finish the year off between 43 and 45 million with present rates in mind.
Combine that with much of what Jacob said, and it's obvious that the Wii has an extremely high chance of beating the PS2. The only factor in play is the Wii's lifespan, and I expect it will easily prove to have a tremendous one.
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