40 million PS3 sales by the end of 2009 isn't unrealistic. It might be optimistic, but it's definitely possible with Gran Turismo 5, God of War III and Final Fantasy XIII as well as a cheaper slim model possible for release late next year.

However, only 30 million 360 sales by the end of 2009 is ridiculous. 360 will likely be somewhere between 24 and 26 million sales by the end of 2008. To think that 360 will only sell 4-6 million consoles ALL next year is downright stupid. 360 is much more likely to have sold around 38-40 million consoles by the end of 2009. That's right PS3 and 360 sales will be neck and neck at the end of 2009. Mark my words, that will be the time of great fanboyism within the gaming community.

ill have to say that i feel the ps3 will be around 35-39 million and the 360 around 38-42. i do count on a total price drop of 100 dollars for both consoles. right now after 3 years the 360 has had one price drop 50 usd (or two if the second was is continued like i think it will be ).

in christmas 09 i think the 360 at most should be 249 for the mid grade, but a better price would be 199. i expect the ps3 to be 50 more dollars than the ps3 at most times, MS would be wise to do this. it can nullify some of the blue ray dirve advantage, if blueray becomes a bigger selling point. (this christmas we will see alot of what blue ray can do). though until movies go blueray only, we will not see a major shift, say in about 3 to 4 years

40 million dont think so more like 35.

What a foggy prediction it is... Well I can call it possible since everything is possible. But I'd have to go with a NO for this.

25-30 million.

120k for the next 74 weeks would be just under 9 million. Which would be 24. I'm adding 1-5 million extra for the two holiday seasons if you look at it this way.

The PS3 has sold an average of 190k or so since it's lauch including 2 holiday seasons. 74 weeks, including 2 holidays, would be 200k*74 = 14.8; 14.8+14.5 = see above.

That is how I made my prediction.

Edit: 40 million would be another 25 million sold in 74 weeks, or 338k a week.

LOL, so sony will sell 25mln consoles in less than 1.5year(almost as many as nintendo wiis) and MS will sell only 10mln consoles. YEAH RIGHT.

i dont think so, around 32 million by end of 2009 for PS3

its possible you fanboys

If it can reach pass 20 million by the end of this year, then its possible to get to 40 milion by end of 2009. But i would say 35 million to be on the safe side.

This is what you expect?

1. Playstation 3 will sell 338K/week as an average, or 25M over the next 17 months. I find this reasonable.

Look at it this way:

For the next 3 months (up untill November) it should stay fairly steady on par with what sales have been this far the year. 3.5M is very possible.

For the 2 months, it sold 3.5M in 2007. Wii sold 6M. I expect it to see somewhere in the middle of that, as that's where the Ps3 has been this year. Right in the middle of Ps3 2007 and Wii 2007, maybe a little above.  5M seems fair.

Ps3 has sold 5.7M without a holiday season so far this year. It will probably sell a bit more than this next year in the same period, so 7.5M for 1st half of 08.

For the 3 months up to the holiday season, it could sell 5M, if things go right.

For the 2 months of holiday season, it now needs to sell 4M. That should be done easily.

I see all these numbers as possible. Yes, it's a bit optimistic, but it's possible.

2. You expect Wii to sell 35M, or 472K/Week for the next 17 months. That's pretty much spot on 2M/month. I find this a tiny bit low, but completely fair.

Why?

There is a holiday season in the next 5 months. Nintendo is likely to have stockpilled for this, so it should see extra numbers. And there is close to no change at all of a demand drop during the holidays.

If we foresee a 7M Wii holiday for the 2 months, which is only fair, as it sold 6M last year, when they had far less stock to pick from. This means that we're likely to see more than 40M Wiis by end of 08 - and maybe closer to 43M

If we say 40M, which is a bit pessimistic, Wii needs 25M sales in 09. For a comparison, it is likely to sell 23M ish this year, which is what it will need next year.

Sure, we are likely to see a grow, but how big it is going to be isn't certain. Remember, at the current pace, there aren't more than 29M Wiis to be produced in 09.

3. You expect Xbox 360 to sell 10M, or 135K/week for the next 17 months. This is very pessimistic

It has sold 4M so far this year, in a slow period, with no holiday seasons. It's likely to see minimum 5M combined for those 2 holiday seasons. That leaves it to average less than 100K/week to make 30M.

It is going to beat 30M, but by how much? I don't believe it is enough for you guys to justify your laughter.