It is possible, but I think we should adopt a wait and see approach as so many things can change over the next year or two. Both consoles have good line of exclusives that can tip the balance. The Bluray in the PS3 is slowly becoming more relevant to consumers, but the 360 will probably hit the $200 sweet spot sooner and the public is slowly becoming more aware that the newer models are not easily prone to the RRoD anymore. We still need to see what the effects of the Netflix deal is and Home could prove to be a system seller.

I think it's still too early to tell, and trying to 'accurately' predict and assume a winner based on today's sales figures will not work very well.

Possibly.

1. The 360 could be 200 dollars and it still would not rival the Wii.

2. Look what Monster Hunter did for the PSP

3. Yes people will wait for a game they like before buying a console. Hell I know a couple guys waiting for SOCOM before they buy a ps3. I knew a few people who bought one for MGS4 and when the time comes FF13 will move consoles. There are people who will wait for a cheaper price untill this game hits. 

Since early last year and through not too long ago I have continued to say that with the PS3's continued price getting closer the the area more people are willing to spend on a video game system and that in Japan 360 is pretty much non-existant and finally in Europe the PS3 continues to beat the 360 by a decent margin, that it would pass the 360 WW in 2009.

However, I am beginning to think I was wrong.

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=38998&end=39649&weekly=1

If you look at the above referenced chart you can see that when the PS3 launched the 360 was roughly at 5m. Then as of the latest figures the 360 is still roughly 5m ahead of the PS3. So, in 21 months the PS3 hasn't really gained anything on the global sales scene.

There is nothing this holiday in either parties lineup that suggests we will see much of a difference as compared to last year's holiday sales. As referenced here:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39362&end=39460&weekly=1

As you can see 360 sold about 4m units and PS3 sold about 4m as well. Again, essentially equal. Since last holiday, neither side has had an adjustment to the entry price point of their machines, granted that could change but I would think any change would be equal on both machines, thus the overall affect would be the same. Nearly identical WW sales for the holiday period.

Since every price reduction the PS3 has can easily be paralleled by the 360 and nearly every single big 3rd party game has and will be multiplatform, I don't see how the PS3 will quickly catch the 360 in WW sales. The PS3's sales curve has been only a few % better than the 360's which hasn't even allowed it to close the gap between them by even 500k in 21 months. By VGC's count the 360 was 5.3m sold when the PS3 launched and now the gap is 5.4m.

PS3 launch: http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=38998&end=39047&weekly=1

Last Week: http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39635&end=39649&weekly=1

So, in all actuality given that VGC's numbers, as all tracking firms, are merely estimates with a reasonable amount of error, the PS3 and 360 have remained equal over this first 21 months.

I still think that the PS3's growth over this year will continue to rise and thus it will start to actually close the gap outside of any possibility of an error in the accounting. However, not to the degree of the Wii's growth which at this point would be required if the PS3 is expected to pass the 360 in 2009.

So, while I still think the PS3 will end in 2nd place this generation, it won't happen any time soon. In fact I would bet that it may not happen until 2011 at the earliest. By then, is it really going to be considered a 'win'?

 Are we forgetting that the Ps3 wasn't launched for 5 months in Others?

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39173&end=39649&weekly=1

6.6 Mil lead with the launch of Ps3's in Europe.

Which was 17 months ago and the I was comparing WW sales which the gap between them hasn't changed.

EDIT: Since I was comparing 360 @ 5.3m and PS3 @ 0, with today, it makes the european launch irrelavent. However, when the PS3 launched in PAL territories the 360 was ~7m ahead. At the beginning of this year 360 was still ~7m ahead. So, this year's growth was just catching back up to the ~2m they lost in thier first 5 months. All I was showing was that after 21 months they are barely back at ground zero. If they keep gaining ~2m a year then it would take them to 2011 to actually pass the 360. Maybe I needed to illustrate that better in my first post, sorry. I thought that by mentioning their growth for this year I was alluding to this ~2m.

 But you were comparing Ps3 WW sales to 360 WW sales when 360 had 3 regions worth of sales extra for 5 months than the Ps3 had at its Japan and NA's launch.

Kinda silly to compare that. You should compare them both at full strength.

The fact the PS3 will pass the 360 will surely come true, either by next year or by Xbox's surrender and launching a new console, then PS3 will surely take over the 360 this generation. While the 720 will "stay ahead of the next gen" like it did this generation but Wii2 will surpass the 720 buhahaha.

Have you guys seen the numbers? Xbox 360 only went up 1 million difference, first year was 6 million, second year was 13 million (7 million difference), what about the third year? 22 million (9 million difference)? and no, I was not counting december during Xmas holidays, I am counting from release date in NOVEMBER before the peak of the sales.

PS3 started almost exactly like Xbox 360 in sales with 6 million its first year, then guess what? it already surpassed 13 million EASILY before its end of the second year. I would say it finishes at 18 million by November, making it a 12 million difference compared to Xbox 360's second year which was a 7 million difference.

Some people just can't accept the facts. If PS3 keeps growing yearly. Xbox 360 has no chance of winning AT ALL. Truth~ Ps3 won the format war and Blu-ray is the future. No chance Xbox 360 will take SECOND this generation.

You guys who can't accept this need to get past your Denial stage and move on to the Acceptance stage. (the psychological  stages of Xbox 360's death) buhahah

I edited that post, look up for better clarification.

superchunk,

you should have kept ur first prediction : IT will happne in 2009 (Xmas)

-4 M at Xmas08

-0 M at Xmas09