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LOL MATURE on 27 July 2008
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superchunk said:
Since early last year and through not too long ago I have continued to say that with the PS3's continued price getting closer the the area more people are willing to spend on a video game system and that in Japan 360 is pretty much non-existant and finally in Europe the PS3 continues to beat the 360 by a decent margin, that it would pass the 360 WW in 2009.

However, I am beginning to think I was wrong.

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=X360®3=All&start=38998&end=39649&weekly=1

If you look at the above referenced chart you can see that when the PS3 launched the 360 was roughly at 5m. Then as of the latest figures the 360 is still roughly 5m ahead of the PS3. So, in 21 months the PS3 hasn't really gained anything on the global sales scene.

There is nothing this holiday in either parties lineup that suggests we will see much of a difference as compared to last year's holiday sales. As referenced here:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=X360®3=All&start=39362&end=39460&weekly=1

As you can see 360 sold about 4m units and PS3 sold about 4m as well. Again, essentially equal. Since last holiday, neither side has had an adjustment to the entry price point of their machines, granted that could change but I would think any change would be equal on both machines, thus the overall affect would be the same. Nearly identical WW sales for the holiday period.

Since every price reduction the PS3 has can easily be paralleled by the 360 and nearly every single big 3rd party game has and will be multiplatform, I don't see how the PS3 will quickly catch the 360 in WW sales. The PS3's sales curve has been only a few % better than the 360's which hasn't even allowed it to close the gap between them by even 500k in 21 months. By VGC's count the 360 was 5.3m sold when the PS3 launched and now the gap is 5.4m.

PS3 launch: http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=X360®3=All&start=38998&end=39047&weekly=1

Last Week: http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=X360®3=All&start=39635&end=39649&weekly=1

So, in all actuality given that VGC's numbers, as all tracking firms, are merely estimates with a reasonable amount of error, the PS3 and 360 have remained equal over this first 21 months.

I still think that the PS3's growth over this year will continue to rise and thus it will start to actually close the gap outside of any possibility of an error in the accounting. However, not to the degree of the Wii's growth which at this point would be required if the PS3 is expected to pass the 360 in 2009.

So, while I still think the PS3 will end in 2nd place this generation, it won't happen any time soon. In fact I would bet that it may not happen until 2011 at the earliest. By then, is it really going to be considered a 'win'?

 

 Are we forgetting that the Ps3 wasn't launched for 5 months in Others?

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39173&end=39649&weekly=1

6.6 Mil lead with the launch of Ps3's in Europe.