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Forums - Sales - Why this generation has already been decided

windbane on 28 June 2007
gorgepir said:
@windbane
You can't download virtual games for the PC for free. Using emulators is just a simple form of piracy. Like it or not. But it doesn't have an effect on the overall sales. Just look at itunes. Some people like to download legally. That is just how people are.

Whatever it is, a lot of people are not going to download games they have played on emulators for years. VC games could be a little cheaper, too, especially considering games like Mortal Kombat 2 is cheaper on the PSN and includes online play.



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windbane on 28 June 2007
RolStoppable said:
windbane said:

You predict the DS to sell 150 to 175 million? Wow.


30m = 20 % - 150m = 100 %

35m = 20 % - 175m = 100 %

80 % = 120 to 140m


Of course.  But even if the PSP sold 115 million you'd still call it a failure.  Those numbers are rather high, too. 



ArtofAngels on 28 June 2007
Timmah! said:
ScuubyT said:
ArtofAngels said:
mrstickball said:
They aren't the only company based on simple economics. Microsoft and Sony are in the video game markets for reasons far bigger than just videogames, therefor just using "they are losing money" as an excuse is dumb.

For Sony, they've almost always made a profit until they decided to push more online functions and Blu-Ray technology. As I've said, and will say again, Sony is pushing a machine to push Blu-Ray, therefore the actual benefit of the PS3 to Sony (as a corporation) isn't entirely in gaming. Therefore, their true profits off of videogames isn't entirely disclosed in mere P&L statements for the PS3, nor console losses. So what if the PS3 looses $200? The PS2 lost $120 per system @ launch (give or take), and ended up making Sony billions of dollars.

For Microsoft, they are taking the route of pushing alot of DLC, addons, content upgrades, and such. Consoles aren't their bread and butter, which is why they lose so much. However, their bread and butter are from vista/office sales, and software. Secondarily, they make lots off of servers, to which MS is using their servers for XBL content. For all we know, profits for the H&E division are less because sales of MS Points and XBL Gold subscripts. aren't included.

Nintendo is the only game company because thats all they are. For them, if Nintendo ever lost money, they'd go bankrupt. Sony and MS have the advantage of being able to lose money, and being able to recoup it.

You can extrapolate "oh, if Sony/MS were just videogame companies, they'd be bankrupt" thats just faulty logic. Your assuming that if both companies just made videogame systems, they'd pursue the same stratagies, but they wouldn't. They wouldn't have the massive bits of cash to invest in things that Nintendo can't even invest in. Theres a reason the Wii uses rehashed GC technology - it's cheap. Theres a reason Nintendo can't invest in a fully functioning online network - it costs money Nintendo is unwilling to pony up for quickly, as its alot of money. This is a plus and minus.

For consumers though, the Sony/MS is better in the fact that we gain where they lose. We get systems that are far more powerful for the dollar than the Wii. Which might mean, or not mean anything to various gamers (to me it does though).

Ultimately, your trying to make a hypothetical point thats totally invalid. MS and Sony aren't video game companies. Thats why they sell systems, and what they do works for them.

Pink: Your Display pic typically matches the content in your post.

Red: Make's no sense as is, however makes a little sense if you take Microsoft out.

Blue: Makes even lese sense then the red zone, If I lost $5 in a poker machine do I declare bankruptcy?

Green: I agree, but don't believe it will pay off.

Purple: It's not really working for them at the moment now is it?

 

Their Bread and Butter is elsewhere, fair enough that's true, but you've gone and said that if video games was all they had they would take different strategies, okay, so basically they don't care if they lose money, "Hey we have so much money lets make a supreme console just for shits and giggles"

I think your wording was just a tad off.

They want to win this War as much as Nintendo are, Profit wise.


How do you figure that the "Red" comment isn't true?  It's entirely, 100% true.  Sony and MS don't exactly try to make a secret about that.  They would only take a different strategy if they didn't have the money to lose, which Nintendo didn't have.  If, and I'm not claiming victors or anything like that, the Cell and Blu-Ray become mainstream, Sony will be rolling in cash when this is over...whether they sell the most consoles or not.  They had the money to lose so they could get the Cell and Blu-Ray out in the market, so they did.  MS, on the other hand, doesn't want people to abandon high end PC's for consoles, so they created the DirectXBox.


'Red' is definitely true!

Sony has a lot to gain or lose with the success or failure of Blu-Ray & cell. 

On the other hand MS not only wants to push DirectX, but they want to invade every aspect of our daily lives... Media center PCs, Zune (made for bigger reasons then just music), Windows mobile, Windows CE, Windows XP Embedded, DirectXbox (Thanks, ScuubyT), before you know it we'll be eating 'Frosted MS Icons' breakfast cereal...


Wow, looks like people liked my rainbow post, I even noticed some people taking on my new trend,

If Microsoft didn't want people abandoning High-End computers then why give people another gaming option in the first place? especially one that's always losing money, In all respect to the persons day that you made with that post's reply, Good for you.

It makes no sense, you also went on to imply that Blu-ray will pay off, when is what i'd like to know?

With decreasing PS3 sales and shifting 3rd party support almost no-one here even knows what the hell Blu-ray is, the only place you can even buy it's limited options of Movies is game stores, where people don't go to look for movies, ones in which are about $10 more then your average DVD.

In fact why do you think Microsoft back the HD-DVD format? It's because they want people to be confused with the formats and bugger off both Blu-ray and HD DVD all together, in fact I believe I recently read an article from Microsoft saying that both formats will be irrelevant, obsolete, and never fire off which basically points to my 'theory' to the only reason they backed HD DVD in the first place was to help hammer a nail in PS3’s coffin.

Answer me this, please, I eagerly await any possible answer to this question:

Do you really think Sonys ambition is to kill it's gaming department to increase awarness that there is a new format of DVD out there?

 



gorgepir on 28 June 2007
windbane said:
gorgepir said:
@windbane
You can't download virtual games for the PC for free. Using emulators is just a simple form of piracy. Like it or not. But it doesn't have an effect on the overall sales. Just look at itunes. Some people like to download legally. That is just how people are.

Whatever it is, a lot of people are not going to download games they have played on emulators for years. VC games could be a little cheaper, too, especially considering games like Mortal Kombat 2 is cheaper on the PSN and includes online play.


Well that is your opinion, obviously the 4.7 million downloaded virtual console games proves your theory wrong. I thought the same when itunes first came out. Guess I was wrong too. It's all about convenience. That is what nintendo is selling. The nice thing is if you have a good connection, you don't even have to save the games to your Wii, you can download them, play them, erase them and download them for fee when you want to play again.

I do agree thought that they could be a little cheaper. But I would rather waste my money to game developers than to waste it on other things.

Edit: Also I would download games like Super Mario bros and Zelda for their nostalogic value even if I didn't want to play them. I just want to have them on my console. I can't wait until Super Mario 3 comes out.



Timmah! on 28 June 2007

ArtofAngels Said: Answer me this, please, I eagerly await any possible answer to this question:

Do you really think Sonys ambition is to kill it's gaming department to increase awarness that there is a new format of DVD out there?

What?!? Who ever suggested that Sony wanted to fail? That never even crossed my mind! Sony thought that because of brand loyalty their PS3 would sell well, so they didn't worry about the increased price due to Blu-Ray & Cell. Their ambition was to produce a high-end console that would blow away the competition with incredible graphics, multimedia capabilities, and new technology. They just mis-calculated what people are currently willing to pay for a gaming console.

Pushing their two new, expensive technologies on comsumers prematurely proves that sony was in this for more than just gaming- they wanted to ensure the success of two other technologies. If they had come out with a machine that matched or exceeded the X360 as far as graphics for the same price or cheaper they would probably blow X360 out of the water with sales, maybe even the Wii (though I doubt it). They over-promoted their other technologies, over-inflated the price, and because of this their console is not doing so well.

I'm saying It was a mis-calculation, not a deliberate failure.



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Timmah! on 28 June 2007
Game_boy said:

It's all very well discussing unit sales, projections and price points, but in truth the seventh generation of video game consoles has already been decided.

Microsoft and Sony are massive corporations with over forty billion dollars of annal revenue and massive profits. In contrast, however, their game divisions each show significant and sustained losses - Microsoft ever since it entered the console market and Sony since the PS3 started to lose them $200 on each one sold and the PSP was a virtual flop against the DS.

This means that if it weren't for their other business, both companies would be dead and bankrupt already.

Nintendo, on the other hand, has always turned a large profit and has had their share value (and therefore how much money the market expects them to make) triple in 18 months due to the DS and Wii.

#1 Result: If the market was fair and Sony and Microsoft couldn't afford to lose billions of dollars every year just to stay in the game market, Nintendo would be the only major competitor left.

#2 I believe if sales continue their current trends Sony and Microsoft will give up and pull out of the console market altogether. I see no financial reason to stay in it for either company.

 

 


I agree with your overall point that this gen is pretty much decided, however, I have some issue with a few of your other points. 

#1: The only problem I have with this point is, If the market was fair and Sony and MS dind't have the money to lose, they would've designed cheaper consoles that actually made money from day 1, so your point is somewhat flawed.

#2: The problem with this point is that if Sony and MS both pull out of the gaming market, it will be viewed as even more of a failure than if they simply lose this gen. Big companies like that have to worry about public image, and a public failure like that would greatly tarnish their images. I think that at least one of the two companies will probably at stay in the gaming industry, but will release a console that is cheaper and more accessible to the mainstream next gen.

And this gen has been decided by mass appeal, not because the other companies are taking a loss.



ArtofAngels on 28 June 2007

That was a serial question I asked, of course it's not the case!!!

But so many people here have defended Sonys apparent Failure, and claimed it as a Success for Blu-ray, and it's purpose was Blu-ray.

I'm not an idiot, I can see both sides.



johnlucas on 28 June 2007

And now a word from our Johnsor.

Oh boy. It never ends. The lack of own-up-to-it-ive-ness.

Generation was decided 2 years ago at the Tokyo Game Show.

September 16, 2005 when a small white rectangular remote-like device was raised toward a conference screen by a shaggy-haired Japanese man. The business strategies make the race before the competitors even get running.  The run is just the end result of the preplanning.

If the stampedes of E3 2006 didn't convince you that the pendulum has swung the other way, the Nintendo way, then nothing will.

That was your signal, that was your omen. ABC 123. That's how easy Wii can be.

There's not a damn thing the competition can do to stop the WiiDS Phenomenon. Nothing. No big blockbuster games, no heralded exclusives. Nothing. Yeah it will give them a little profile and then they return to their mortal forms. Wii only gets stronger as the clock ticks on. Plain and simple.

They will sell AT LEAST 20 Million worldwide by year's end.

They will outsell the record-breaking numbers of the PS2 worldwide going on to be the world's greatest selling console...they will DOUBLE IT (as Crank Yankers' Niles Standish says). AT LEAST Double it. They could go further and probably will but they will at least double it.

The Wii will surpass the NES in every respect successwise and in terms cultural impact. It is after all the second coming of the NES. The realization of the TRUE Family Computer.

XBox 360 will be #2 and PS3 will be #3 worldwide. Simple as that. A distant #2 & #3 like last go 'round and the go 'round before that.

HD DVD & Blu-Ray will be a wash. Something out of left field will render both those formats obsolete. And it won't be a disc. It will be a new physical smaller spaced format that could be cubical. Downloadable content obsoletes this fight from the other end. DVD will last for at least a decade more.

MGS4 will not go to the PS3 and the PS3 won't make it out of the year 2009 the way they're going. Sorry to spoil the party.

We have just begun to see the power of Wii and DS working together. When this takes off Nintendo's profits will be mindbreaking (more than they already are). Making me kick myself for not investing in Nintendo stock earlier.

Nothing will stop the WiiDS Phenomenon. And yes what are called "non-games" are actually games. Those who stick to those descriptions will constantly be surprised and shocked at the inevitable way the market will shape up. Gamer elitism is at an end. The Revolution was televised and it came in the form of Wii Channels.

And yes Nintendo as an monopoly is much better than Sony or Microsoft as a monopoly any time of the day. But never fear where there's money to be made there's room for new challengers to appear.

Nintendo will show everyone who doesn't believe in this 7th generation of game consoles that they ARE the industry, not just a part of it. This is their house and the rest are just visitors. Don't be surprised if at the end of this gen Nintendo's the only one left standing.

John Lucas 



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

Timmah! on 28 June 2007
windbane said:
RolStoppable said:
windbane said:

1. I highlighted my statement you apparently ignored. Will Nintendo never have anything to download that isn't a very small game? That is a terrible online service in this gen in comparison to the 360 and PS3. I think the PSP should also come with more storage by default.

2. Compare VC downloads to 360 or PS3 downloads, or heck, even PSP downloads. Then you'll have something. Otherwise, your opinions on the matter are no greater than mine. I think the Wii's storage limits it for the future, including this "new" (and I'm sure it will be called innovative) "Wiiware" initiative to get original games in the Wii store. PSN and Live games will likely not fit.

3. There is little value if you have to get another card to store stuff.

4. Time will tell, indeed. I guess the generation has not "already been decided." Like I said, this thread's title is not a fact.


1) I didn't ignore that part, but you are acting like the internal flash memory of the Wii is used up within days. If you think Nintendo offers a terrible online service, feel free to do so. It won't stop the Wii from becoming #1.

2) Whatever you say. It won't stop the Wii from becoming #1.

3) Whatever you say. It won't stop the Wii from becoming #1.

4) Whatever you say. It won't stop the Wii from becoming #1.

Now that is an arrogant post, isn't it?

Really, if you don't like the Wii, I won't be able to convince you to change your opinion. If Nintendo can't do anything right in your opinion, I won't be able to convince you to change your opinion.

And this generation has already been decided. Deny it as long as you wish, it won't change anything.


Wow, I missed this pointless post.  Sorry.

You admitted "time will tell" many times but all the sudden you go nuts.  

Whatever you say, it won't change the fact that the Wii has problems and obstacles keeping it from being a sure #1.  You can ignore all of my points but that doesn't make this generation decided.

I already said I'm getting a Wii, but I'm not blind to its problems.  I would rather wait until they include a hard drive or at least more storage.   Time will tell on that one, too.  Kinda pointless to have so little storage if you are trying to get people to download online games, though.


Nintendo is not stupid. They will almost certainly update their firmware to include not only support for USB hard drives, but also support for memory cards larger than 2GB. If you could get an 4 or 8GB memory card in the wii, you could store hundreds, even thousands of VC games (depending on which old school console you download most), and if you want to just use the internal memory you can delete games and re-download them later for free in about 30 seconds.



StarcraftManiac on 28 June 2007

@ timmah: HAha.... U'r sig! Very funny ....  

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PS3 sales continue to slip until they finally reach -12.6 Million* in 2009.

*Numbers may be slightly inflated due to fanboyism

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This is humor!!! (And maybe truth...?! )



THE NETHERLANDS