| Game_boy said: It's all very well discussing unit sales, projections and price points, but in truth the seventh generation of video game consoles has already been decided. Microsoft and Sony are massive corporations with over forty billion dollars of annal revenue and massive profits. In contrast, however, their game divisions each show significant and sustained losses - Microsoft ever since it entered the console market and Sony since the PS3 started to lose them $200 on each one sold and the PSP was a virtual flop against the DS. This means that if it weren't for their other business, both companies would be dead and bankrupt already. Nintendo, on the other hand, has always turned a large profit and has had their share value (and therefore how much money the market expects them to make) triple in 18 months due to the DS and Wii. #1 Result: If the market was fair and Sony and Microsoft couldn't afford to lose billions of dollars every year just to stay in the game market, Nintendo would be the only major competitor left. #2 I believe if sales continue their current trends Sony and Microsoft will give up and pull out of the console market altogether. I see no financial reason to stay in it for either company.
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I agree with your overall point that this gen is pretty much decided, however, I have some issue with a few of your other points.
#1: The only problem I have with this point is, If the market was fair and Sony and MS dind't have the money to lose, they would've designed cheaper consoles that actually made money from day 1, so your point is somewhat flawed.
#2: The problem with this point is that if Sony and MS both pull out of the gaming market, it will be viewed as even more of a failure than if they simply lose this gen. Big companies like that have to worry about public image, and a public failure like that would greatly tarnish their images. I think that at least one of the two companies will probably at stay in the gaming industry, but will release a console that is cheaper and more accessible to the mainstream next gen.
And this gen has been decided by mass appeal, not because the other companies are taking a loss.
