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Forums - Sony - Is Blue ray the future or digiatal distribution?

I can see digital distribution being the future, but it won't be for a while. I like something tanglible like a Blu Ray box and disk, something to show as a "collection".  I think the majority of people are the same way (unless of course they can get something for free which, in this case, they'd prefer free over a box and disc). 

People will probably prefer digital distribution when HD really really catches on, since it's more convenient, but man would I ever hate to download 20GB every time I wanted a new movie.



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I still prefer blu-ray, aside from the fact that I get the physical copy (which I like for movies) it is also the pain of downloaded masses of data and then keeping them



@Kasz216 - Blu-ray is outperforming DVD in during initial sales. It took DVD 7 years to surpase VHS (2003), analysts currently project 6 years for Blu-ray to gain 50% market share against DVD.

@Jenny - This thread topic has been discussed countless times on this site. Digital distribution is easily 10 years away from being competitive to disc based methods.



Thanks for the input, Jeff.

 

 

Blu-Ray isn't the future, unless you count some other developed disc that takes the name of Blu-Ray, like a 500 GB disc or a TB disc, sometime in the near future, we're already at 200 GB if I remember correctly.



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I don't know if there'll be another popular disc format for a while (for HD movies anyway). I think people are tired are disc wars and certainly don't want to be left in the dark like all the HD-DVD owners.



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If internet gets fast enough I'd enjoy both as I'd rent my 720p movies and I'd buy the movies I like on Blu Ray, as it is now it takes way too long to download a 1GB movie file with my internet connection (and I have cable), so I would not want to pay to rent and then download a 5GB file.



Kasz216 said:

Too soon to tell.

Blu-ray is trailing heavily behind DVD during it's first few years. Still it's doing a little better the Laserdisc in the physical media market.

It's probably doing worse then Laserdisc when you take into account expanded audience of the buisness with more DVDS sold and VOD and other services... but the Industries are really behind blu-ray and putting up a lot of propoganda because they'd like to sell their movies one more time before the switch to VOD. So it's still got a fighting chance.

You don't need broadband for VOD content... just cable.

 

If I had to guess... i'd expect DVD to stay ahead for a few more years... eventually with Blu-ray and VOD splitting the market for a while.

People who really care about HD and having hard copies will go with Blu-ray while most other people will go VOD. Once downloads get fast enough everywhere and they have a storage solution...

Digital Distribution will win in the end. At some places you might have to still go to a store and download what you want onto a Zipdrive type thing though.

 

Do you have a link? I would like to read on that and I take it that's for America and not WW?



FilaBrasileiro said:
Kasz216 said:

Too soon to tell.

Blu-ray is trailing heavily behind DVD during it's first few years. Still it's doing a little better the Laserdisc in the physical media market.

It's probably doing worse then Laserdisc when you take into account expanded audience of the buisness with more DVDS sold and VOD and other services... but the Industries are really behind blu-ray and putting up a lot of propoganda because they'd like to sell their movies one more time before the switch to VOD. So it's still got a fighting chance.

You don't need broadband for VOD content... just cable.

 

If I had to guess... i'd expect DVD to stay ahead for a few more years... eventually with Blu-ray and VOD splitting the market for a while.

People who really care about HD and having hard copies will go with Blu-ray while most other people will go VOD. Once downloads get fast enough everywhere and they have a storage solution...

Digital Distribution will win in the end. At some places you might have to still go to a store and download what you want onto a Zipdrive type thing though.

 

Do you have a link? I would like to read on that and I take it that's for America and not WW?

Worldwide.

As of June.... Blu-ray has sold 11 Million Disks

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=1355


Comparativly DVD had sold 16.3 Million disks around the same time Blu-ray and HDVD had sold a combined 8.3 million.

http://www.movieweb.com/dvd/news/20/26720.php

So... Blu-ray is at least 5.3 million discs behind.

When you realize that more discs are sold now then VHS and DVDs were when DVD was new... you see the gap is even worse.

Basically. It would be as if you had less money then someone from 1970 without even adjusting for inflation. You actually have even less money then he does. Hence why adjusting for "inflation" in the video market Blu-ray may actually be behind laserdisc.



jenny said:

I tunes is now outselling CD's, is that the future also for movies? Did PS3's on demand movies solidify it as the future? Whats to become of blue ray movies in the future if everyone with a game system or computer can just download HD movies?

 

No it doesn't. iTunes was ranked the second largest music retailer in the US after Wal Mart (who sell Cd's) for 2007, the other 8 retailers on the list were also CD sellers. Only about 10% of legaly acquired music in the U.S comes from downloads.



First of all, the CD and movie markets are at least a little bit different. While iTunes may very well be selling more than CDs this is because websites like kazaa, napster, etc has to some extent killed the need for buying CDs as anybody can upload and download music files once you put them onto the PC.

Movies on the other hand, are quite a bit harder to store on a PC and upload/download so in my quite humble opinion, the dig distribution thing for movies can't and won't ever be the standard.

-Movies are frequently 10 or 15gigs, 25 or 35gigs if HD. That is quite a lot more space on your PC than a little MP3 of Metallica or what have you.

-Also, Blu-ray has some built in copy protection that DVDs and to a much greater extent, than CDs as well which will probably be broken eventually, but as long as it keeps Blu-ray pirating down to a minimum, i'm happy.

-Also, there are movie industry guidelines that are designed to keep pirating to a minimum, like region coding, the Blu Ray association's demand that all BD movies have their copy protection, etc. Beleive me, the movie industry has seen what has happened to the CD market and they have taken some steps to avoid the same result.