I think its 21 or 22 million. At holidays its sells double, when good games come it sels triple.

It's very likely that it will mate... new truly badass games are coming!

In any case, I'll help it reach this number, I'm gonna get mine in the winter... along with 4-7 games.

It's certainly way more likely to reach that then 150m. lifetime.

i was going to say 19m, but then i remember the holiday season.

If MGS4 bundle continues throughout Christmas then it will go even higher.

@OP

Reading the title my eyes were dazled, I though it read that the PS3 would reach 20 million units sold in Japan by 2009 - I expected lols then I reread the post while the page was loading and felt sad. =(

Anyway yea it should get past 20 million - but I believe the saying was that the 60 gig with b/c sold better than the 40 gig without, I'd figure the are starting a new trend, I'm sure they don't want to make any mistakes off of a high quater.. but I'm willing to say they are placing their bets on the PS3 60 gig selling for different values and not just b/c. (selling over the 40 gig)
Keep in mind GTAIV and MGS IV and err I'm sure there is something else with a IV that should go here... came out last quater and didn't have a huge effect on hardware versus the prior month(or at least as huge as the fans were conjuring) so that means the PS3 is doing pretty well all in all.

Definitely, the holiday boost will be great than those from MGS 4 and GTA IV. It has already sold well, and the value addition of the 80GB should help sales (is it bundled with a DS 3?). The other big hitters should really help, so it could easily sell 7-9m in the 2nd half of the year

Can't be a serious question. It will easily pass the mark.