Awesome. Hope you win your bet soon.

I'd like to you to do the math again.

I'd do it... but i'm lazy.

Don't they have to sell more then 1 out of ever 4 consoles? Otherise at some point they'd be stuck at some percentage just below 25%.

Fresh numbers. Here we go!

By the end of 2008:

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Wii gets 48% market share 44.3 million units sold
Xbox 360 gets 27% market share 25 million units sold
PS3 gets 25% market share 23 million units sold
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This means the following must happen (approx numbers as of July 1)
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Wii must sell: 44.3 - 28.8 = 15.5 million units / 6 months = 2.58 million/mo avg.
360 must sell: 25 - 19.5 = 5.5 million units / 6 months = 0.92 million/mo avg.
PS3 must sell: 23 - 14 = 9 million units / 6 months = 1.5 million/mo avg.

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Okay, so with the holiday season coming we can see higher sales figures coming as well. The 360 getting nearly 1 million per month average? Unlikely, but possible. The Wii getting 2.58 million per month average? It seems pretty high, but again possible. The PS3 getting 1.5 million per month average? What on God's green earth would cause that?

BY the way.. the Wii increase a 0.1 too...

These threads are overly annoying.

STOP MAKING THREADS WHENEVER A CONSOLE MOVES UP .1%!!!!

Here's how the math works:

28.96 + 19.72 = 48.68 (total number of Xbox 360s + Wiis sold)

Now, let's assume that's 75% of the market.  To find the total market size, divide by 0.75.

48.68 / 0.75 = 64.9 = number of 360s + PS3s + Wiis if PS3 has 25% of the market.

64.9 - 48.68 = 16.22 = number of PS3s that would equal 25% of the market as of July 5 according to VGC.

16.22 - 14.14 = 2.08 million units = number of units short the PS3 is of having 25%. 

Of course, in order to maintain 25%, the PS3 would still have to sell 1 for every 4 units even if they sold 2.08 million extra units sometime soon.  Therefore, they need 1 in every 4 units sold plus an additional 2.08 million units.

Test the numbers:

28.96 / 64.9 = 44.6%

19.72 / 64.9 = 30.4%

16.22 / 64.9 = 25%

44.6% + 30.4% + 25% = 100%

This means that if the PS3 had 16.22 million units sold today it would be at 25%.  Therefore, in order to reach 25%, the PS3 would have to sell 1 for ever 4 consoles sold, plus it would have to make up an additional 2.08 million units.

Since the wildcard here is the "1 for every 4 consoles sold", whether or not Sony can do this depends heavily on how well the Wii and Xbox 360 continue to sell.  The PS3 started the year off very strongly but seems to have begun losing steam lately.  The result will probably come down to the holiday season, but if Sony doesn't make up a lot of units before November there will be little hope they can reach 25%.

31.4-22.5 = only 8.9% difference ... so the PS3 is on a roll lately and they'll possibly catch up in week to week software by Dec.

I think it's gonna happen.

This is getting dull. What gives you the right to dictate who can make a thread and for what reason? If you're not interested then don't read the thread, there's no rule saying you must read and comment on topics you find tedious.