| souixan said: 25% is very likely all sony has to do is sell 1 out of every 4 consoles sold to achieve that. It'd not a difficult thing to do honestly. Gaining as you start exceeding 50% then it get's tough as you have to maintain a better than 50% sales rate to keep gaining. |
Here's how the math works:
28.96 + 19.72 = 48.68 (total number of Xbox 360s + Wiis sold)
Now, let's assume that's 75% of the market. To find the total market size, divide by 0.75.
48.68 / 0.75 = 64.9 = number of 360s + PS3s + Wiis if PS3 has 25% of the market.
64.9 - 48.68 = 16.22 = number of PS3s that would equal 25% of the market as of July 5 according to VGC.
16.22 - 14.14 = 2.08 million units = number of units short the PS3 is of having 25%.
Of course, in order to maintain 25%, the PS3 would still have to sell 1 for every 4 units even if they sold 2.08 million extra units sometime soon. Therefore, they need 1 in every 4 units sold plus an additional 2.08 million units.
Test the numbers:
28.96 / 64.9 = 44.6%
19.72 / 64.9 = 30.4%
16.22 / 64.9 = 25%
44.6% + 30.4% + 25% = 100%
This means that if the PS3 had 16.22 million units sold today it would be at 25%. Therefore, in order to reach 25%, the PS3 would have to sell 1 for ever 4 consoles sold, plus it would have to make up an additional 2.08 million units.
Since the wildcard here is the "1 for every 4 consoles sold", whether or not Sony can do this depends heavily on how well the Wii and Xbox 360 continue to sell. The PS3 started the year off very strongly but seems to have begun losing steam lately. The result will probably come down to the holiday season, but if Sony doesn't make up a lot of units before November there will be little hope they can reach 25%.
