Apart from their new IP's for Japan, new comer - White knight (that I feel may garner FF like figures eventually) and ofcourse the grand daddy of proven IPs in the region - Final Fantasy - will be the litmus test. If FF doesn't shift mind blowing # of consoles in Japan then I'd say yes, Japan belongs to Nintendo. Though I expect Everybodies Golf to move a very good number of consoles, I'm not expecting an over whelming spike in hardware sales from it.

And you think that Nintendo doesn´t have new IPs specially for Japan 2? You do sound like a fanboy you know. Anyway, I guess that bundle will help, although 150k consoles is a bit optimistic I think. And Japan doesn´t belong to Sony, I think the DS has already proven that.

http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=everybodys+golf&console=&publisher=&sort=Total

 This game sells really well in Japan! They are dealing with a much smaller install base at the moment though so I would venture to guess it will sell somewhere in the 300k-500k range lifetime in Japan.

its the 60GB version not 80GB...

Every console obviously has new IPs coming out but I'm not going to even argue with you on points on my post. Like I said, please, please, please save my post and quote me wrong. 

right Dolla Dolla and ssj12, I was speaking about the 60GB model and not the 80GB

(EDIT :I fixed it, thx ssj12)

and for Chubear, I expect this too
but sincerely, it is not sure that this "switch" will happen
> maybe Wii owner will just "stay" with the wii and not buy the PS3
and Microsoft are making huge effort to get the japanese market

the japanese market will maybe switch to Sony
but nothing is done

you know the 300k pre-order are maybe just guy that already possess the console PS3, who know ?

 then why dont you fix your first post because you have 80GB...

Japan is far from being "Sony's" ...

 I thought for a while this was most likely to occur. But now I think in Japan the ps3 will follow the psp's footsteps and the Wii will follow the DS's footsteps exactly. You have to remember something you can't pretend the 3rd party developers will continue to develop tons of software slated for next year if this system fails to sell even half of what the Wii is doing. I mean it's 7:1 now, with no software competition. Thats starting to look like a vote of no confidence from gamers, if that keeps up by E3 we are going to see tons of new software anounced for the Wii, and by next year all the major players will be hyping huge Wii projects and it'll be hard even despite some great AAA games for them to over throw the foundation the wii has built. Remember the N64's first year when game after game for the n64 was getting canned and moved the ps1, And even despite legendary games like Zelda, Smash Bros., goldeneye, it couldn't catch up. Well it could start to happen this generation.

 Quick correction. Dragon Quest is the grand daddy. FF is a perennial runner up

 I don't know what your talkin about HappySquirrel, it's clear from your numbers that while the Wii increased from last year it has taken from the DS's percentage, while the psp has increased it's market despite a drop in ps2 hardware. And the ps3 has more then doubled it's share of market percentage from last year, if it continues at that rate every year well it will control the entire market by itself in 4 years. While in the software ranks in 2007 the Wii can't even beat the psp,ps3, and x-box 360 combined. that's pathetic. Not to mentioned the ps3 increased it's software percentage from .7 to 2.8 that's like quadruple man, again at that rate it will control the market in...uh 5 years. quadrupling every year, it will definitly control the market in 5 years, making it basically invincible in japan.