ssj12 said: HappySqurriel said: | ssj12 said: Is the Wii even going to last that long? Nintendo always only has a 5 year plan, so 2009 Wii 2 will be announced and it should be released 2010. | Q4 2006 + 5 years = Q4 2011 ... So the Wii will probably still be selling in 2012 ...
Since we are making unrealistic statements "The Dreamcast lasted 2 years and the PS3 is selling at about the rate of the Dreamcast so we should expect to see the PS4 in 2008" |
opps... forgot it was launched at the end of 2006 so yea... but still, the ps3 wont be ended till 2016 from their 10 year plan. Ps4 will be out in 2013 though most likely. |
What's this about 5-year vs 10-year plans?
PS1 was first launched in Japan on Dec 3, 1994.
PS2 was launched in Japan on March 4, 2000. (roughly 5.5 years)
PS3 was launched in Japan on November 11, 2006. (roughly 6.5 years, due to delayed launch)
NES was launched in Japan on July 15, 1983.
SNES was launched in Japan on November 21, 1990. (roughly 7.5 years, probably due to lack of competition)
N64 was launched in Japan on June 23, 1996. (roughly 5.5 years)
GCN was launched in Japan on September 14, 2001. (roughly 5.5 years)
Wii was launched on November 19, 2006. (roughly 5 years)
In both cases, the console's half-life is 5 years, then a new model is released. The old model then starts to fade, and eventually put to pasture just before the new model is launched.
Both Nintendo and Sony have traditionally projected 10-year lifespans in all their consoles. Why are people suggesting the Wii will last only five years before its sucessor is launched while the PS3 will last ten years before its sucessor is launched?
When Nintendo releases its sucessor it does not mean Nintendo pulls the plug on the Wii right there and then. It will continue to contribute to Nintendo's bottom line for another five years. Ditto that for the PS3.
And honestly, I don't think even the staunchest of Sony fans truly believe that the PS3 has so much untapped horsepower that it will still be able to compete against a console that will be released ten years down the line. I'm giving it two more years before the PC completely obliterates any graphical prowess the PS3 is capable of showing today. In ten years' time the PC will do things the PS3 will only be able to dream about. By then the PC will, once again, raise the benchmark by which all other consoles will be compared to graphically anyhow.