jman8 said:
So I was reading a couple of the "FFXIII=Epic Fail" threads, and a number of people mentioned how Dragon Quest IX is going to have absolutely massive sales now that the series is on the DS. I'm not saying the game isn't going to outsell FFXIII, but do people really think DQIX is now going to sell much more than the 4.69 million that DQVIII sold?
I highly doubt it and here's why. A) The PS2 and DS have similar sized user bases. B) DQ has always been a very conservative traditional RPG series. What has changed about the DQIX that's going to all of a sudden draw in a larger fan base?
Maybe people think that DQIX is going to make way more money now that it's on the cheaper-to-develop-for DS. Even that thought is flawed b/c the revenue for these games is so much greater than the cost that profit isn't going to all of a sudden double. On top of that, you could sell PS2 games for $50 while DS games typically go for $40 max, which offsets some of the development cost advantage of the DS.
Your thoughts?
|
A few notes:
The Nintendo DS has a vastly higher userbase when DQIX launches. The PS2 had 17 million users, the NDS is at 23 million users and growing (could be near 25m when DQIX hits).
Even though DQ is a traditional series, it's also a transcending blockbuster series. Look at NSMB. Nothing earth-shattering about it, but it sold 5 million units in Japan. DQIX can see similar sales, I think, should it be a good game.
Also, the revenue argument is bunk. Square Enix charges more cash in Japan for their carts than normal games. A DS cart of DQIX will most likely go for around 6,000 yen unless something crazy happens (roughly $55 USD).
Lets look at a few key sales indicators for NDS performance of RPGs, versus the PS2:
| Nintendo DS |
Sales |
|
Playstation 2 |
Sales |
| Pokemon D/P |
5,500,000 |
|
Dragon Quest VIII |
3,538,000 |
| Dragon Quest M: J |
1,458,000 |
|
Dragon Quest V |
1,611,000 |
| Dragon Quest IV |
1,200,000 |
|
Super Robot Taisen Impact |
632,000 |
| Final Fantasy III |
1,008,000 |
|
Final Fantasy X-2 |
1,960,000 |
| Final Fantasy IV |
612,000 |
|
|
|
| Super Robot Taisen |
278,000 |
|
|
|
Those are just a few numbers that have some sort of relevancy against eachother. At any rate, the DS has held pretty good vs. PS2 remakes (DQ IV vs. DQ V). Again, adding the userbase of the DS, and the fact that the DS had a great track record with Pokemon D/P selling well above DQVIII on PS2, I think we'll see DQIX sell at least 4 million units on the DS...Maybe even 4,500,000.
I think the biggest thing about DQIX is that S-E actually produces enough carts to satisfy user demand. Dragon Quest Monster: Joker (1.4m units) had a shipping collapse for MONTHS. It's sales were stymied for a long time thanks to horrid production capacities either by Square Enix (not ordering enough carts) or Nintendo (not producing enough to safisfy S-E demand).
Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. " thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."
