Well R2 , Motorstorm 2 , Little Big Planet , Soccom and other quality 3rd party games could push it over 2 millions IMO . The only way it could get over 3 is : GT5 release , PES09 purchasers migrate from the PS2 entirely to the PS3 , some killer game that we will see at E3 and a 100 Eu pricedrop ...

You do know that nintendo has yet to announce their lineup for christmas right? ALso the only games that are needed to sell Wii's are already out. The wii is limited by stock now, and will be more so around christmas. So I don't see your point.

Yes the Wii will sell like hell. Doesn't it get boring to state the obvious all the time.

But as for why PS3 sales might even double from last year two big reasons: GTA4, MGS4

Some points in the comparison.

Most big titles on the PS3 have not shown great legs -- so unless something comes out as a must have in the late Autumn (e.g., LBP), it is doubtfult hat existing software will move new consoles in the holiday season.

The PS3 has outsold the Wii five times in Others in the last three quarters (and at least one of those appear to be result of supply constraints as the Wii got outsold by the Xbox 360 in that week as well. There is nothing to predict that it can do it for five weeks.

The comparison between the PS3 and PS2 has other flaws as well. To begin with, the PS3 will have been out for six months longer this holiday season than the PS2 had been, meaning a different in timed demand. Also, the PS3 is a competitive console in Others -- it is not the dominant market leader that the PS2 was.

Finally, if you have not noticed, the global economy is tanking as bad as it has in several decades. Video game are not a "need" but a "want" -- so purchases could be down this Christmas/Holiday season all around.

Mike from Morgantown

@Leo-J: So, we are talking about the time period of 9-21 months after launch.

The big difference here is, that PS3 isn't the winning console, unlike PS2 was. When PS2 was gaining more and more momentum with increasing number of big titles, PS3 is not winning and the biggest hitters are already out (not counting FF13). The support PS3 is getting, is mostly multiplatform releases with 360, while 3rd party exclusives are going for the Wii. Sales numbers (as in raw numbers) in this comparision are kind of irrelevant, what counts is the change in the numbers during the chosen period.

PS3 will sell word wide in total 4.5 million consoles for December.
Wii will sell world wide in total 7 million consoles for December.
X360 will sell world wide in total 3 million consoles for December.

^ I just made those numbers up but we get the picture. Wii, PS3 and then 360. It is not rocket science to work out which systems will be first, second and third.

You've been drinking Crazzy-Aide haven't you?

Yeah sure.
You have only 1 prediction to your name so far, and that is the 120k per week thing, which wasn't particularly bold as predictions go, but I will give you it as your 1 correct, sales based prediction.

 Before they released, I would have agreed with you. But for christmas, the boost these give will be very small - at least considering how little they have done till now. They're not doing much more than keep up the sales.

R2 is released during holiday, so that could boost it, at least more than these.