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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3 will sell around 3million units in others alone in december 2008

Sullla on 05 July 2008
obieslut said:
yes but looking at the data you can conclude that the ps3 will sell around the 3mill mark, i was kinda shocked when i looked at the number myself but thats what the data is saying,

Plus everyone always says you pulling the numbers out you ass or something whenever you make a prediction but when faced with data they dont want to agree with it.

I would like for someone to try and disprove it, you cannot disagree that, thats what the data is saying

Are you so sure about that? Here were the numbers from last year:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 01st Dec 2007 to 29th Dec 2007:


Console Wii PS3 X360
Total Others
1,685,747
1,244,115
776,456

PS3 holiday sales would need to increase by a factor of more than 2.5 in order to hit 3m. And don't forget that there was a major price cut in November of last year that helped spur sales.

I think a comparison to 2007 PS3 holiday sales is much more appropriate than to 2001 PS2 sales...



My Website

End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

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TWRoO on 05 July 2008

I ned to ask obieslut.... what period are you classing as December.

There were 3 ways of looking at it last year (2 are in my previous post... sulla has the other one)

This year there will only be 2 ways.

1 way will be the 4 weeks ending the 27th December and the other way is the 5 weeks ending 5th January (same as NPD should have I think, but then this is Europe so not NPDs territory)

Either way the PS3 will not get over 2 million never mind 3 million.... you realise numbers can lie, you have to think about what the best comparison is to be fair rather than just comparing, otherwise you could compare PS3 to PS2 from worldwide launch and show that the PS3 is almost equal to it, or Crazzy's thread where he compares the PS3 now to the PS2 in 2002 (which is unfair because the PS2 was much younger in 2002 by region than the PS3 is in 2008)



Sullla on 05 July 2008

OK, after reading the original post about five different times, I finally figured out the methodology. obieslut looked at the data and found that 2001 PS2 sales in Others from January to June roughly equalled 2001 PS2 sales in December. The problem is that he then took this arbirtrary statistic and decided to apply it to PS3 sales in Others in 2008, suggesting that the PS3 would sell something crazy like 3m this holiday season.

The problem is that the comparison makes no sense. Using the same logic, the Wii will sell almost 4m in Others this December, which is similarly crazy. Looking at data is great, but you also need to suggest a reason why 2001 PS2 winter and spring sales serve as a good estimate of 2008 PS3 holiday sales!



My Website

End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

leo-j on 05 July 2008

Indications are that  wii will not outsell the PS3 this december in OTHERS.

edit now I know it there is a mod editing my posts



 

mM
Gilgamesh on 05 July 2008

I think we should all stop this thread, and then continue it after E3



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TWRoO on 05 July 2008
leo-j said:
Indications are not wii will not outsell the PS3 this december in OTHERS.

You are correct leo, the Wii probably will outsell the PS3 this December in Total Others. Nice to see you be positive towards the Wii for once.

Unless you are talking about "others" as in the last table in total others hardware, in which case I think you are wrong, the PS3 has been released in more of those small regions so it is likely to sell more than the Wii.

 



tombi123 on 05 July 2008

I think the PS2 was supply constraint in early 2001 though. It also had a huge price cut in november 2001, from £300, to £200. Even with a price cut to £200 for the PS3 (WHICH ALMOST CERTAINLY WONT HAPPEN), I can't see the PS3 doing 2M in december.



leo-j on 05 July 2008
TWRoO said:
leo-j said:
Indications are not wii will not outsell the PS3 this december in OTHERS.

You are correct leo, the Wii probably will outsell the PS3 this December in Total Others. Nice to see you be positive towards the Wii for once.

Unless you are talking about "others" as in the last table in total others hardware, in which case I think you are wrong, the PS3 has been released in more of those small regions so it is likely to sell more than the Wii.

 

 

 Someone edited my post, I didnt say that.

 

I stated INDICATIONS(stockpiling of wii's, so much on store shelves) are that the wii will NOT outsell the ps3 this holiday season, with no more AAA titles coming out for the system or any proven IP compared to the PS3 or the 360 for that matter. Not to mention that the stockpiling is huge on store shelves. If sales do drop, it will be a huge drop just like I predicted.



 

mM
bdbdbd on 05 July 2008

And they call John Lucas crazy...

First problem in the comparision was to compare number one console to number two console. Better comparision would be to compare Saturn or N64 and PS3, that would be much closer to the situation where we are at the moment.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

leo-j on 05 July 2008
bdbdbd said:
And they call John Lucas crazy...

First problem in the comparision was to compare number one console to number two console. Better comparision would be to compare Saturn or N64 and PS3, that would be much closer to the situation where we are at the moment.

 

 Thats pointless, why not compare it to the ps2 were the console(ps3) is selling better than the ps2 did at this part of its lifetime.



 

mM