I believe that Holiday 08 will be the high watermark for the Wii. The has gotten off to such an amazing start I believe it will peak a bit sooner than the average console. For HW I believe it will look something like this.

Week ending

Nov. 8th- 500k WW

Nov. 15th- 550k **Wii supply begins it holiday, and early shoppers snatch Wiis up.

Nov. 22nd- 600k **Heavy Supply contrains begin as Ebay sellers(hoping for a repeat of last year) and early shoppers buy up any liquid stock.

Nov. 29th- 1000k **Black friday in US, 700k of sales from NA alone. 250k from others 50k from Japan

Dec. 6th- 750k **Holidays season rush begins full swing, Wii sales dip to around 300k in NA due to post BF doldrums.

Dec 13th- 850k **Supply kicks back in, Wii is now supply contrained in most territories minus eastern europe, and Japan

Dec 20th- 1100k **Japan sells out, more shipments arrive, massive NA and Others sales, Japan picks up. 550-450-100

Dec 27th- 1600k **Huge week, has Cmas eve, and day after cmas in same week, Massive shipment arrive on Sunday morning. 900k in NA, 500k in Others 200k in Japan.

Jan 3rd- 500k **Good week in Japan due to New Years holidays there, Wii selling good in other place due to gift cards and cmas money. 200k in NA, 150k in Others, 150k in Japan.

Total Wii HW Holiday 09 sales- 7.45 million

This is not counting elevated October sales. Also, a price drop in Japan could do wonders, and affect the total end result by 250-500k, price reduction in Others or NA not in forseable future.

The Amount of Software that will move with these console will be astronomical. Families with 3 kids who buy their kids a Wii will most likely get each kid "their" own game. Not mention that the kids will use money from Grandma and Relatives to buy games for their shiny new Wiis.

Expect many "older" titles to see major holiday boost- SMG, SSBB, MKWii, M&S, and Zelda(less than others). I could also see WiiFit doing very well as families that already have a Wii will buy WiiFit to get mom involved or because they think their kids are fat. I think MKWii will see the largest boost of any game.

The new Wii games will see great sales as well because they will ride marketing hype into the holidays. I expecy Madden on Wii to be a Major force this year in sales, and we can never forget the New Guiter Hero will will no doupt be HEAVILY pushed on the Wii.

So basically we have a massive amount of Hardware going out, a massive amount of HW already sold (around 35 million heading into Nov) I believe that all of this will equal a legendary Holiday seasom that the Wii itself will never equal again.

Things to look for are the sale of the Wii version of GHIV, COD4, Sonic Unleashed, The Conduit(hit or Miss), and the quality of the Wii 1st and 3rd party holiday line-up that is still unknown. I believe SMG will rebound to get over 1 million in sales in NA alone this holiday season. MKWii and SSBB will both sell an addition 2 million over the holidays with MKWii sell a bit more.

>Things to look for are the sale of the Wii version of GHIV, COD4, Sonic Unleashed, The Conduit(hit or Miss), and the quality of the Wii 1st and 3rd party holiday line-up that is still unknown.


let's pray that isn't what Nintendo is depending on.. Both PS360 actually have decent games coming out toward the holiday seasons.

^ You're so pessimistic when it comes to Nintendo, kingofwale.

Your synopsis is very optimistic.

If Nintendo could keep supply up, that could be true. Seven million in just 8 weeks is a really hard sell for me. But like I said, we'll see... But as KoW said, the games you listed are hardly a reason to own a Wii over any system, except for The Conduit, which you openly state is "hit or miss". I think that if you wait until E3, when Ninty announces some more First-party titles, not Multi-plat titles, you may have a stronger argument.

Also, I'm sure that you mean Call of Duty 5 not Call of Duty 4, right?

I mentioned those three because there are games that are huge 3rd party games. They need to be at least moderatly successful or the Wii can say goodbye to massive 3rd party support.

This is true... assuming Nintendo has a game or two to sell this christmas season.

Look at the sales of casual games on the PS2. There are still millions of casuals, let alone core gamers that have yet to pick a new console. Look the sales of the of Lego IJ as an example.

I believe that the Wii will have little difficulty selling over 1000k in 3 different holiday weeks. There is going to be a huge holiday stock pile. My number are conservative overall, they really depend on shipments of course. The week ending the 20th could easily be like last year and have lowshipments, then the week of Cmas be close to 2000k.

I also believe Xmas 08 will be huge, particularly for the Wii
I dont see why it should stop selling

Wii Fit alone could drive big holiday sales.

Speaking of Wii Fit, where are they?